As pointed out in the previous article the calculations were not correct. I have redone the calculations with the current data.
DATA SOURCE:
Burn data - https://www.luncmetrics.com/
Coin data - https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna/
Initial Parameters:
- Current Market Cap: $900 million (fully dialuated market cap. Nov, 2024 )
- Current Coin Price: $0.00014 (Nov, 30th 2024)
- Target Price: $1
- Annual Burn Rate: 1%
Step-by-Step Calculation:
1. Current Supply:
\[\text{Current Supply} = \frac{\text{Market Cap}}{\text{Current Stock Price}} = \frac{900,000,000}{0.00014} \approx 6,428,571,428,571.43 \text{ shares}\]
2. New Supply After Annual Burn:
- Each year, the supply decreases by 1%.
- After 1 year: \(\text{New Supply} = 6,428,571,428,571.43 \times (1 - 0.01) = 6,364,285,714,285.71 \text{ shares}\)
- This continues to reduce each year.
3. Growth Rate:
- Assuming an optimistic annual growth rate of 50% (adjusted for supply reduction).
4. Adjusted Growth Rate:
- Combined effect of 50% growth and 1% burn: \(51\% \text{ effective growth rate}\).
5. Doubling Time:
- Using the Rule of 72:
\[\text{Doubling Time} = \frac{72}{\text{Adjusted Growth Rate}} = \frac{72}{51} \approx 1.41 \text{ years}\]
6. Doublings Needed:
- To reach $1 from $0.00014 (Price at Nov 30th 2024) :
\[\text{Doublings Needed} = \log_2 \left( \frac{1}{0.00014} \right) \approx 12.82\]
7. Total Time:
\[\text{Total Time} = 12.82 \times 1.41 \approx 18.07 \text{ years}\]
On basis the above calculations - Conclusion:
With an optimistic annual growth rate of 50% and a 1% annual burn rate, it could take approximately 18 years for the $LUNC price to reach $1.
Few key points to be Considered: Which can lead to $LUNC reaching 1$ sooner .
Strong support from binance.
Strong support from the community.
Increasing in the burn rate.
Low Transaction Fees.
Staking - Holders earning from transaction fees.
Governance: LUNC holders can participate in treasury governance, proposals, and voting.
Community objective ( burn coins and ultimately reach 1$)
This scenario remains highly optimistic and real-world factors can significantly impact these outcomes. Nevertheless, it's an exciting potential trajectory!
