Original title: (Wandering and consolidating, is the market's purchasing main force still there? | WTR 12.2) Original source: WTR Research Institute
This week's review
From November 25 to December 2 this week, the highest price for ice sugar oranges was around $98,871, and the lowest was close to $90,791, with a fluctuation range of about 8.17%. Observing the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips were traded around 96,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• Analysis: 1. 60000-68000 approximately 2.24 million pieces; 2. 90000-97000 approximately 970 thousand pieces; • The probability of not breaking below 87000-91000 in the short term is 70%; • Among them, the probability of not breaking above 100000-105000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news方面
Economic news方面
1. According to CME 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in December is 32.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 67.1%.
2. JPMorgan's trading team believes that the S&P 500 will be close to 6,300 points by the end of the year.
3. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams: Inflation is above the target of 2%. Over time, bringing interest rates back to a neutral level will be appropriate.
4. German trade unions announced: About 66,000 public car workers participated in the strike.
5. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was forced to leave the company, causing the previous board to lose confidence in his plans to turn the company around.
News in the cryptocurrency ecosystem方面
1. Coinbase's chief policy officer: It is expected that the Trump administration will quickly introduce cryptocurrency laws after taking office.
2. Analyst Fournier pointed out, 'The profit-taking phenomenon is obvious, and a massive sell wall of over 4,000 Bitcoins, approximately $384 million, must be cleared to reach higher prices.
3. 10x Research pointed out in a recent report that the Bitcoin balance on cryptocurrency exchanges has reached a historical low, and on-chain data shows a sharp decline in the number of Bitcoins available for purchase.
4. The rebound in Ethereum prices has driven the NFT market's recovery, with November NFT sales reaching the highest value in nearly six months.
5. Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission: The licensing of Hong Kong virtual asset trading platforms will be announced before the end of the year.
6. On November 30, according to Farside Investors data, the net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETF yesterday was $332 million, surpassing Bitcoin spot ETF for the first time in history (yesterday it was $320 million).
7. Trump nominated five 'cryptocurrency players' as new cabinet candidates
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull/bear market/structural change/neutral state Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
• Large exchange transfer head sizes • ETF fund reserve flow • US market purchasing power • Whale head size status
(The following chart shows large exchange transfer head sizes)
Large exchange transfers still indicate that many high-net-worth participants are showing significant purchasing intent.
(The following chart shows the fund reserve flow of ETFs)
The fund reserves on the ETF side have returned to positive, but not as dramatically as before. The overall market atmosphere is still relatively positive.
(The following chart shows purchasing power in the US market)
Purchasing power in the US market shows a positive trend, with a strong atmosphere in the Americas.
(The following chart shows the status of whale head sizes)
Whales continue to persist in purchasing. Overall, the market, aside from slightly increased pressure, still has relatively significant new buying power supporting it.
Mid-term exploration
• Network sentiment positivity • Comprehensive score of whale purchasing power • Comprehensive score of USDC purchasing power • WTR risk observation indicator 1 • Changes in ETF channel fund inflows and outflows
(The following chart shows network sentiment positivity)
Network sentiment has recently shown a significant decline, and the current value is continuously decreasing. This may indicate a decline in overall trading enthusiasm.
(The following chart shows the comprehensive score model of whales)
Whales still show a high scoring performance, indicating that they may still have a strong holding willingness, and the overall group's participation enthusiasm is relatively high.
(The following chart shows the comprehensive score of USDC purchasing power)
The purchasing power of USDC remains very strong, with high scores even during high volatility. Users in the US market may not have a plan for an overall exit given the current market situation.
(The following chart shows risk observation indicator 1)
Comparing the risks of BTC and ETH, the current hidden risks in the market may still be concentrated in ETH. The risk coefficient of ETH has risen rapidly recently, which may be a test the market needs to face.
(The following chart shows changes in ETF channel fund inflows and outflows)
The fund inflows in the ETF channel have become slow, and participation enthusiasm is relatively cautious. The current market rhythm may see an overall contraction, waiting for a significant turning point.
Short-term observation
• Derivative risk coefficient • Options intention transaction ratio • Derivative trading volume • Options implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • Net head sizes of ice sugar orange exchanges • Net head sizes of Yita exchanges • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Net head sizes of stablecoin exchanges • Off-chain exchange data
Derivative Rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and the risk of derivatives is increasing.
(The following chart shows the risk coefficient of derivatives)
Last week, the market was more inclined towards fluctuations, with the risk coefficient approaching the neutral zone. This week, the market still relies more on incremental changes, and the impact of derivatives on the market remains relatively small.
(The following chart shows the transaction ratio of options intention)
The ratio of put options is at a high level, and trading volume is at the median.
(The following chart shows the trading volume of derivatives)
Last week, it was mentioned that when derivatives trading volume is low, one should wait for the market to generate the next fluctuation. Following last week, a very small correction occurred, and the current trading volume has fallen back to a low level, indicating that a new fluctuation is expected this week.
(The following chart shows implied volatility of options)
The implied volatility of options has not changed significantly.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(The following chart shows profit and loss transfer volume)
Market sentiment has retreated from last week's greed to the neutral zone.
Market positive sentiment has declined, and panic sentiment has not risen significantly, indicating that the market is still in a healthy state.
(The following chart shows new addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at a high level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of significant outflow, while ETH is accumulating inflows overall.
(The following chart shows the net head size of the ice sugar orange exchange)
BTC exchange net head size continues to accumulate large outflows.
(The following chart shows the net head size of the E-Trade exchange)
Although there is a small outflow of ETH exchange net head size, overall it is still in a state of inflow accumulation.
(The following chart shows high-weight selling pressure)
Old address profit-selling has eased somewhat.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power remain the same as last week, both in a positive recovery state.
(The following chart shows the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power is basically unchanged from last week.
(The following chart shows the net head size of USDC exchanges)
Purchasing power of stablecoins remains the same as last week, in a positive recovery state.
Off-chain trading data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 94,000; there is a willingness to sell at 100,000.
(The following chart shows off-chain data from Coinbase)
At the price range of 84,000-90,000 and 94,000, there is a willingness to buy; at the price range of 100,000, there is a willingness to sell.
(The following chart shows off-chain data from Binance)
There is a willingness to buy near the price range of 84,000 to 90,000; there is a willingness to sell near the price range of 100,000.
(The following chart shows off-chain data from Bitfinex)
There is a willingness to buy near the price range of 84,000 to 90,000; there is a willingness to sell near the price range of 100,000.
This week's summary
Summary of news
1. September 2024 became the fourth largest rate cut month of this century, with 26 central banks globally implementing rate cut policies.
2. This trend continued in November, marking the entry of global monetary policy into a new cycle.
3. Looking ahead to 2025, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates by 1-1.5 percentage points.
4. Against this backdrop, major global central banks may follow the Federal Reserve's lead to further improve the liquidity environment.
5. Still optimistic about the performance of the capital markets in 2025.
On-chain long-term insights:
1. Large exchange transfers still indicate that there are large holders persisting in purchasing;
2. The fund reserve flow of ETFs shows a slight warming of market purchasing intent;
3. Purchasing power in the US market is positive and active;
4. Whales are relatively actively purchasing.
• Market tone: Purchasing support is still ongoing, needing to digest the selling pressure from long-term participants who have previously taken profits.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The enthusiasm for participation in the market has declined; 2. The whale group still has a high holding willingness; 3. Users in the US market have not shown a collective retreat; 4. Current risks are mainly concentrated in ETH; 5. Inflows into ETFs have become cautious.
• Market tone: Cautious; currently, it may be a easing phase, with key groups in the market showing high participation enthusiasm, but overall participants have become a bit more cautious.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and the risk of derivatives is increasing. 2. New active addresses are relatively high, indicating high market activity. 3. Market sentiment state rating: Neutral. 4. Overall, the net head size of exchanges shows that BTC is in a significant outflow state, while ETH is accumulating inflows overall. 5. Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power remain the same as last week, both in a positive recovery state. 6. Off-chain trading data indicates a willingness to buy at 94,000; a willingness to sell at 100,000. 7. The probability of not breaking below 87000-91000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not breaking above 100000-105000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market tone: The market's positive sentiment has shifted from high to neutral, and the overall short-term market condition is good. The next fluctuation is building momentum.
Risk reminder: The above is all market discussion and exploration, and does not provide directional opinions for investment; please approach with caution and be aware of market black swan risks.
This article is submitted and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
