The hope for CPTPP application is bleak, tariff pressures are approaching, and the exchange rate has fallen below 7.3. This series of messages compels us to think about how we should respond to the new landscape of global trade. If tariffs really rise to 60% next month, export goods will instantly lose their competitiveness. Can we still complete the task of maintaining a trade surplus? Is depreciation of the yuan and cost-cutting really the only antidote?

We see that maintaining exports has become an important goal of current policy. Continuous depreciation of the exchange rate seems to be aimed at allowing foreign consumers holding dollars to maintain their purchasing power, but who will foot the bill for the inflationary pressure and rising import costs that come with it? Even more concerning is whether companies can continue to maintain competitiveness by cutting costs. Ultimately, cutting costs means cutting wages, but is it realistic for one person to do the work of three while only earning one salary? Is this fair?

Faced with such a complex situation, the threshold for CPTPP remains high. Each application is rejected, and discussing it a year later may not yield results. Other countries have gradually integrated, while we are still lingering outside the door. How can this comparison not cause anxiety? Is it really the only solution to resolve issues through currency depreciation?

The world is changing, and we cannot always respond passively. While exports are important, it is even more crucial to accelerate the enhancement of domestic demand and structural adjustments. We need to consider that if we always rely on depreciation and cost-cutting to maintain exports, where will our future competitiveness lie? Looking back, should we focus more on how to truly get the domestic cycle running?