In the cryptocurrency world, every major event is not in vain, because the ones who pay the money are never the big guys who cause trouble, but tens of millions of retail investors.

Take South Korea for example. There was a sudden big move some time ago, and the Korean won collapsed all of a sudden. The Korean retail investors in the cryptocurrency circle were miserable.

Although this is only a local issue, you have to think that there are actually two major forces competing behind the scenes, one is Big Goose and the other is East Country.

There is constant war in Eastern Europe, and India is still going to help China. Now the situation in East Asia is getting tense again. It feels like a diversion to China, probably to prepare for the end of the war in Ukraine.

The tension in this region could have a significant impact on the financial markets. Think about when Trump came to power and imposed various restrictions on the East, the trade war and financial war intensified, and who knows, he might want to push things further, leading to real conflict in certain areas.

So the risk is always there, like a black swan that could appear at any moment. In the cryptocurrency world, if you've made money, quickly cash it out and spend it because you never know when a bomb might drop on you.

Looking at BTC now, it's on the cutting edge. The 94,000 level is quite critical; if it can't hold, it will likely drop to 91,000 or even lower to 87,000.

The MACD indicator doesn't look too good, it seems like it might drop further. However, there is some good news: if the MACD dips a bit more, it could reach near the zero line, and if it gets some momentum, a rebound could make prices above 100,000 not just a dream.

That said, on the four-hour chart, someone was supporting it below yesterday, and now it's swaying in the middle. It’s likely to fluctuate quite frequently in the next few days, so be careful when trading.

If you want to avoid trouble, just lay back and watch the excitement; sometimes you can pick up treasures that way. For those holding cash, it's better not to rush into the market; everything that needed to rise has already done so, chasing high prices now carries a lot of risk.

Emotions are getting more and more exaggerated nowadays; in the past, people would only be extremely greedy for several weeks during the peak of a bull market.

Although altcoins are soaring and making quick profits right now, you have to understand that the big players want to extinguish our risk awareness as retail investors. When the real risks come, it will be disastrous, and most will get hurt. So it's better to reduce your holdings a bit, keep the money safe in your pocket, and prioritize safety.

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