#BTC走势预测 Bitcoin breaks $100,000, and cheers can be heard everywhere in social circles and discussion boards, with many choosing to cash out at this critical point. In the short term, this makes sense, but in the long term, it may still underestimate Bitcoin's potential. Here are my three observations for discussion.
1. BTC circulation depleting: The supply-demand relationship is quietly changing.
The core driving force behind this surge in Bitcoin is not retail speculation, but rather long-term institutional positioning. Data shows that the current circulation of Bitcoin on global exchanges is only about 2.5 million, down from 3.4 million two years ago.
• MicroStrategy purchased 330,000 BTC over four years;
• Bitcoin spot ETFs have absorbed over 1 million BTC in less than a year.
The question is:
• If this trend continues, the liquidity of Bitcoin will further deplete. In other words, the 'Bitcoin available for trading' in the market is becoming increasingly scarce while demand continues to rise. What price changes can we expect in the future due to this supply-demand imbalance?
• As an ordinary investor, will you choose to hold long-term alongside institutions or take profits at a high point? Feel free to share your views in the comments!
2. Strategic hoarding at the national level: Is crypto entering a global competition era?
I used to think that 'national hoarding of Bitcoin' sounded like a joke, but now, this is the reality happening.
Trump publicly mentioned 'Bitcoin strategic reserve' and formed a **'Crypto Cabinet':**
• Vice President: Vance
• Efficiency Department: Musk and Ramaswamy
• Minister of Health: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
• Attorney General: Matt Gaetz
• Secretary of Defense: Peter Hegseth
Interestingly, Bloomberg reports that Trump's team is considering establishing a position dedicated to cryptocurrency policy to promote the U.S. as a global cryptocurrency hub.
Not only is the U.S. making frequent moves, but other countries are also starting to follow suit:
• Russia: Putin signs a decree legalizing Bitcoin mining and considers the legality of Bitcoin trading payments.
• Law enforcement gains: The U.S. and Chinese governments each seized 208,000 and 190,000 BTC from enforcement actions at zero cost.
Discussion Points:
• If national levels start hoarding Bitcoin, what role can individual players play in this process?
• Will Bitcoin in the future become further decentralized or become a strategic tool for nations?
3. The gradual decline of gold's status: New opportunities for Bitcoin?
According to the latest data, the total market value of gold is approximately $20 trillion, while the total market value of Bitcoin has just surpassed $1.9 trillion, accounting for about 9.5% of gold. However, with the escalation of geopolitical tensions and the rise of trade protectionism, Bitcoin's characteristics are being amplified:
• Decentralization: No single country can fully control it;
• Infinite divisibility: You can buy in for just a few dollars, making it easy to circulate;
• Portability and anonymity: It is a safe-haven tool in times of war or economic crisis.
It is worth noting that this surge in Bitcoin coincides with gold peaking.
• Gold has long been considered the 'king of safe havens,' but its limitations are becoming increasingly apparent: it is not easy to carry, difficult to divide, and feels cumbersome and traditional in the digital economy era.
• Can Bitcoin replace gold in the future and become the new 'global reserve asset'?
Bullish without thinking? Don't be naive!
Although Bitcoin breaking $100,000 is a historic moment, it does not mean that one can 'blindly get on board' from here. $100,000 is a landmark position, and many institutions and individual investors will choose to take profits here, which may lead to significant price fluctuations in the short term.
• What should new players focus on?
Pay close attention to the volatility risk in the $90,000-$100,000 range, and do not blindly chase highs.
• What should long-term holders pay attention to?
The road ahead is long and full of surprises, but there will definitely be fluctuations and even adjustments in the future. How to configure assets well and seize opportunities is a question we need to think about next.
What is your opinion?
• Do you think Bitcoin can continue to rise significantly?
• What impact will national strategic hoarding have on ordinary investors?
• Can Bitcoin really challenge gold's status?
Feel free to chat in the comments, let's discuss the world after Bitcoin hits $100,000!