In the past week, $457 million of Bitcoin outflows occurred, the first large-scale outflow since early September. The continued selling pressure affects the upward trend of BTC, and BTC has entered a short-term pressure consolidation phase. Last week, the price of BTC reached a minimum of $90,792 and a maximum of $97,208, with a maximum intra-week fluctuation of 7.43%. Currently, the price of BTC fluctuates around $95,000. The overall price trend of ETH is consistent with the price of BTC. After breaking through the $3,500 resistance level on the 27th, it fluctuated and rose to a maximum of $3,760. It fell slightly yesterday and is currently stable at around $3,600 (the above data is from Binance spot, December 3, 18:00).
Last week, U.S. stocks recorded the most significant gains in recent times. During the shortened trading session on November 29, the S&P 500 surged by 5.73%, the Dow Jones increased by 7.54%, and the Nasdaq rose by 6.21%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, marking a perfect conclusion to November. December 2 started relatively calmly, with slight declines in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.
Under this premise, the current SEC Chair Gensler has officially stepped down, and Donald Trump's SEC chair nomination may be announced tomorrow, with crypto-friendly former SEC commissioner Paul Atkins as the leading candidate.
Affected by the U.S. government's BTC transfer, altcoin activities, and geopolitical impacts on prices, although the speed of BTC reaching the $100,000 target is slowing down, whale accumulation and expectations of loose policies are still stimulating significant short-term price increases in the cryptocurrency market. In the context of high meme coin sentiment, investors are advised to capture market opportunities while paying attention to risk management.
Market Highlights
Due to the launch of a U.S. ETF, XRP's inflow reached $95,000, with a price increase of approximately 69%.
The inflow amount of XRP reached $95 million, the largest in history, which may have been driven by speculation around the potential launch of a U.S. ETF. According to data from on-chain analysis firm Santiment, XRP whales have recently been busy buying, accumulating a large amount of XRP, and XRP's price has shown a significant bullish trend recently.
Currently, the total number of XRP holders has increased by 119,820, with a price increase of approximately 69%. The number of non-empty XRP addresses has also surpassed 5.5 million for the first time in XRP's history. In addition to large whales increasing their holdings, the optimistic attitude towards upcoming U.S. cryptocurrency legislation has attracted many large and retail investors, with XRP currently priced at $2.67 (real-time data as of December 3, 17:00), surpassing normal resistance levels and reaching extreme risk levels.
Currently, Solana and XRP are competing to be the next cryptocurrency to receive ETF approval, and with the change of SEC chair and Trump's crypto-friendly policies, the path to launching cryptocurrency ETFs may become easier.
MicroStrategy has purchased another 15,400 BTC, valued at approximately $1.5 billion.
MicroStrategy, as the publicly traded company holding the most BTC globally, purchased an additional 15,400 BTC (valued at $1.5 billion) between November 25 and December 1. This marks the company's fourth consecutive week of BTC purchases, bringing its total BTC holdings to 402,100 BTC.
Previously, the company sold over 3.7 million shares of MicroStrategy stock and plans to continue its stock sale strategy. As of December 1, MicroStrategy still has approximately $11.3 billion worth of stock available for sale. Over the next three years, the company plans to raise a total of $42 billion through the sale of stocks and fixed-income securities. A significant portion of these funds will be used for further Bitcoin acquisitions.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has significantly increased.
According to CME 'FedWatch', the probability that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate until December is 25.5%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 74.5%. The probability of maintaining the current rate until January next year is 20.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 65.1% and a 50 basis point cut at 14.3%.
On December 2, John Williams, President of the New York Fed, publicly stated at a meeting of the Queens Chamber of Commerce that, as inflationary pressures continue to ease, the Fed may further lower its rate targets to support the sustainable return to the 2% inflation goal.
The U.S. government marked the transfer of approximately 19,800 BTC
According to Arkham data, the 19,800 BTC transferred by the U.S. government to marked addresses flowed into new wallets, with 10,000 BTC (approximately $968 million) transferred to Coinbase. The U.S. government currently still holds 188,309 BTC, valued at approximately $18.24 billion.
This move has attracted considerable market attention, with the price of Bitcoin temporarily dropping nearly 3% to $94,500, but the market quickly recovered. According to on-chain data, these over 10,000 BTC have not actually flowed into the market, and it remains unclear whether this is a real sale or a strategic adjustment.
Investment Recommendations
According to recent market performance and data, the overall cryptocurrency market is currently exhibiting high volatility. Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and optimistic sentiment around U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, altcoins like XRP have seen significant inflows and price increases, although there are certain short-term risks. In the face of an uncertain regulatory environment and market FOMO sentiment, investors need to be cautious of the sharp fluctuations in the market in the short term, closely monitor changes in market sentiment, and adopt reasonable risk management strategies. Adjusting investment portfolios in a timely manner is essential, while avoiding excessive risk exposure.
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