The future trend is "Agents that can run independently and collaborate with each other."
Author: Sleeping in the Rain
GM, here comes the December Outlook.
Dino coins are not my area of expertise, and it is difficult for me to grasp these ancient coins. This outlook mainly wants to talk to you about some of the directions I am looking at.
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1/ AI Agent
After all the hype about AI Memecoins, AI Agent applications, and infrastructure, it’s time to look further afield.
Let me first talk about my personal feelings⬇️
1. It is very difficult for new pure AI MEMEs to emerge; after the big wave, only $GOAT and $ACT, the two AI Memes listed on Binance, remain (I don't have much thought about $TURBO). However, both $GOAT and $ACT are market-making by Wintermute, and I believe those who are on board must be in pain, like me.
2. The improvement of market aesthetics: AI MEME → AI Agent applications → more sophisticated AI Agent applications & AI Agent infrastructure.
My thoughts on future development ⬇️
1. AI Agents with completely new output forms will be more popular;
For example, the AI Agents currently popular in the market are basically Twitter bots, and what everyone is competing more is 'content novelty', such as market analysis by $AIXBT. As long as you produce differentiated high-quality output, the market will pay for it.
Differentiated high-quality output covers two levels, one is the new content form, where the key is 'traffic', that is, the ability to attract enough audiences. Currently, it is text content; we can see the new AI Agent exploring and trying video content and podcast content (including things like the release of music singles by $ZEREBRO and $LUNA, as well as $POD engaging in podcast-related activities); the second is new behavior patterns, such as launching an Agent that can trade memecoins on its own. In the future, we should see more exploration of new behavior patterns (this is also why I was optimistic about $FLOWER and $LOLA before). If new behavior patterns yield good results, the market will pay for it.
2. The market will show more demand for AI-related infrastructure;
This is easy to understand, so I won't elaborate further. A tall building starts from a solid foundation. $VIRTUAL $AI16Z $VVWIFU are representatives of this type of token. In addition to these basic token issuance facilities, we can also pay more attention to infrastructures that integrate these basic infrastructures, such as Seraph on Virtuals.
3. The future trend is 'Agents that can operate independently and cooperate with each other';
Now we can already see such trends, such as what $UBC is currently doing (Agent to Agent). In the future, AI Agents on Virtuals may also develop in this trend. $LUM is the beginning of this type of conceptual token; it is a cultural meme with no practicality (although there are already teams starting to do some things based on $LUM, I still haven't fully grasped their ideas).
P.S. Currently, my $LUM is in a state of loss. Mentioning it does not represent financial advice.
2/ Ethereum
Personally, I am optimistic that Ethereum will have a wave of main rising waves (referring to the EB exchange rate), but I am not quite sure when this main rising wave will appear. I still hold the view I had in November ⬇️
1. BTC ETF will have a spillover effect;
2. Large institutions like BlackRock are engaging in RWA on Ethereum, which means that Ethereum's underlying value cannot be ignored;
3. The rise of the Base AI Agent ecosystem;
In terms of price performance, tokens like $ONDO $LINK $UNI $ENS have started to become strong. This means that the market has begun to focus on Ethereum-related beta targets. This is a bullish signal.
As for the choice of Ethereum Beta, there are three directions: 1. ETH staking related ($LDO $EIGEN LRT); 2. DeFi & RWA ($AAVE $UNI $COW $MKR $ONDO $LINK); 3. Meme ($MOG $PEPE $SHRUB). Personally, I prefer DeFi-related ones and hold $PNP and $EGP to indirectly hold $PENDLE and $EIGEN.
3/ Public chain war
In a previous article about Stacks, I mentioned that the public chain war is about to begin again—In December you can see: 1) The Fantom Sonic mainnet is about to launch; 2) The Avalanche9000 mainnet will go live on December 16; 3) Aptos data growth + institutional adoption + ETP; 4) Stacks will introduce sBTC after the Nakamoto upgrade to gain more adoption, etc.
Most of the surviving old public chains are starting to take advantage of the favorable market to create opportunities. We should see a new round of Layer 1 wars in December and the first quarter of next year. Don't forget that this public chain war has a brand-new participant: HyperLiquid. From my perspective, the $HYPE vehicle is not as heavy as we imagine, and there are relatively few participants/holders in the Chinese community (especially compared to $ACT and $PNUT). In the future, $HYPE still has expectations for going public.
The several mentioned above I think are all pretty good. Their common point is 'willing to release expectations to drive prices' (the old public chain I like the most is Fantom). I will write another article to introduce the updates of Fantom and Avalanche.
In addition to Layer1, I will pay attention to $METIS and Base in Ethereum Layer2. You can keep an eye on this project @ScoreMilk on Metis; it is the reason I am focusing on Metis.
Finally, let me mention Base, which has a very unique tone. When participating, try not to focus on whether its concept is good or not, but rather on whether it meets the needs of the Coinbase Cabal. Otherwise, even if the concept is good, it is likely to be just a fleeting wave.
4/ Chain abstraction
Just a brief mention of chain abstraction.
Chain abstraction/intent abstraction is a concept I am more optimistic about, as it can lower the entry threshold for blockchain and reduce the complexity on the chain.
In this track, I only look at products, not token prices—if the product is usable, the rise and fall of token prices are actually not that important. Also, I believe chain abstraction/intent abstraction still needs time to improve and develop.
Friends who like this track can pay attention to the project @ParticleNtwrk. Particle is a modular & chain abstraction Layer1 (which I have introduced before), and its core function is 'providing users with a single address and interaction frontend across chains through a universal account'. You can also take a look at the chain abstraction framework of @NEARProtocol.
https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/1859920525142941722
5/ What else is worth mentioning in December?
1. This week $IO will announce something (remember the AI trinity I was optimistic about? $IO $GRASS $TAO);
2. 12.10 $ME TGE (we can see some signs of NFT revival, and I personally feel it may be related to Opensea);
3. Coinbase delists $WBTC;
4. The AI infrastructure on Solana can be focused on, $SHDW $SNS
5. $HNT is a project I am very optimistic about. I believe $HNT will perform relatively well in this round (just look at the Mobile data, although few people mention it, Mobile users have actually maintained a good growth rate) ⬇️
