Bitcoin has risen 129% year-to-date, primarily driven by the halving and macroeconomic factors.
Analysts predict further gains for Bitcoin, but challenges such as altcoin dominance and market corrections remain.
Bitcoin [BTC] has performed exceptionally well in 2024, achieving an astonishing 129% increase year-to-date, driven by key events such as the April halving and the results of the U.S. presidential election.
As cryptocurrency prices approach the $100,000 mark, everyone is watching Bitcoin's next move. Analysts are optimistic, with many predicting that Bitcoin will rise further as market conditions continue to evolve.
As Bitcoin rides this momentum, the question remains: will it break through the $100,000 threshold and go higher?
The surge after Bitcoin's halving
Bitcoin will halve in April 2024, significantly reducing miner rewards and cutting new BTC issuance to 3.125 BTC per block.
Historically, halvings trigger supply shocks, enhancing price momentum in the following months. Unsurprisingly, since April, Bitcoin's price has surged over 85%, breaching $95,000 in December.
This rally is driven by a combination of macro and industry-specific factors. Amid inflation concerns and geopolitical instability, Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' is further favored, attracting institutional investors.
Additionally, the rekindling of retail interest and the U.S. presidential election have brought cryptocurrency-friendly policies to the forefront, boosting optimism.
The chart shows a steady upward trend supported by strong on-chain indicators, such as an increase in active addresses and a rise in open contracts for BTC futures.
However, the RSI approaching 61 indicates that the asset is nearing the overbought territory, suggesting a potential consolidation in the short term.
The $100,000 threshold and changing market dynamics
Bitcoin's march toward $100,000 remains a decisive factor for the market. On November 22, BTC briefly touched $99,000 before retreating to the $96,000-$98,000 range.
Meanwhile, as of November 29, Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) broke through $100,200 twice within a week, sparking speculation that spot prices may soon follow.
While breaking $100,000 is largely a psychological factor, it also represents a key milestone of market sentiment.
Despite Bitcoin's rise, its dominance fell to 56.1% on November 30 as investors shifted towards altcoins, indicating that an altcoin season may be approaching.
The decline in dominance indicates that Bitcoin holders are starting to take profits and are regaining interest in high-risk assets, suggesting a diversification of market focus.
Bitcoin's recent performance depends on whether the psychological barrier of $100,000 becomes a reality and whether it can maintain dominance amid increasing altcoin activity.
What does the future hold for Bitcoin?
The trend of Bitcoin indicates that it will continue to grow, with analysts like Raoul Pal predicting a local peak of $110,000 by early 2025, and possibly reaching a peak by the end of 2025.
The halving in April and macro factors like institutional adoption continue to support long-term bullish sentiment. However, risks such as regulatory changes and broader market corrections could temper the rally.
As altcoins gain strong momentum, Bitcoin's dominance may face additional pressure, signaling a diversification of the market.
Whether Bitcoin can break through the psychological barrier of $100,000 and maintain its upward momentum will depend on new buying pressure and broader cryptocurrency market trends.
