Author: Frank, PANews
The past November was destined to be a month belonging to Bitcoin and MEME. PNUT became the brightest star in the MEME track in November, creating a record of a market cap soaring from $0 to over $2 billion in a single month and generating countless wealth myths for diamond hands and smart money.
Setting aside the influence of news such as Musk's endorsements and listings on major exchanges like Binance, how did smart money and diamond hands manage to seize this golden project? What is the current state of chip distribution on-chain? PANews conducted extensive data analysis on the top 1000 holding addresses of PNUT in an attempt to uncover the secrets of these leading chips.
First, I will explain the data sources and methods for this analysis. This analysis uses the top 1000 on-chain holding addresses as the analysis object, and due to data sourcing issues, addresses related to bots, exchanges, trading pools, or anomalies were excluded. In total, about 624 addresses were analyzed for their initial buying or transferring activities (price, amount), initial selling or transferring activities (price, amount), some associated addresses, some large holder addresses, and early internal trading addresses.
Diamond hands faster than Musk
Initial buying time distribution chart
Through analysis, PANews found that the initial buying times of these large holders were mostly concentrated between November 2 and November 4. Among them, the largest number of addresses buying on November 3 was 159. November 2 followed closely, with 138 addresses making their initial purchases on that day. From the timeline perspective, the Peanut event was first mentioned by Musk at around 3 AM on November 3.
Moreover, the buying time of these diamond hands was even earlier than this. In fact, the event occurred on October 31, the same day PNUT was born. On November 2, multiple media outlets in the U.S. began to stir up the public discourse on 'mouse life also matters', indicating that many smart investors were not only following Musk but were also paying attention to Western hot topics and events.
However, after Musk's endorsement, it was indeed observed that the most smart money addresses chose to intervene during this time.
Enter the market when others are panicking
From the buying price perspective, almost half of the smart money chose to initially buy PNUT in the price range of $0.05 to $0.1.
From the chart, the yellow box essentially represents the time and price range where these top 1000 holding addresses bought the most. In fact, prior to this price range, PNUT had already experienced two surges, with the market cap reaching between $50 million and $100 million. Normally, a MEME coin reaching a market cap of $50 million to $100 million in the short term would be a time for many to exit, but clearly, the true major players seemed to choose to enter here. From this, it can be seen that the secret of smart money may not be to grab early chips but to enter when others are too afraid to do so.
Additionally, from the total amount bought on various dates, the main inflow of funds for the top 1000 was concentrated between November 2 to 4 and November 11 to 14. The first period was when PNUT just started to gain popularity, and most of the main funds were positioned during this stage. The second stage was when Binance and several other exchanges announced the listing of PNUT, which clearly saw another part of the main players deciding to enter due to certainty. However, by this time, PNUT's market cap was already close to $1 billion, and the buying volume was relatively insignificant. Instead, it can be seen that the period from November 2 to 4 was the clear entry point for the main players.
Large holders generally have a longer holding time
From the holding habits, the time held by major players is significantly longer than that of retail investors. Among the analyzed addresses, the average holding time was 39 hours, and this does not include those that have not sold since their purchase; if we include addresses that have never sold, the average holding time would be even higher.
From the selling or transferring price perspective, the first selling or transferring prices were also basically concentrated in the price range of $0.05 to $0.1. However, one factor to consider here is that many large holder addresses would immediately disperse their tokens to new addresses after buying, which does not count as selling, so the reference significance of the selling price range here is not large. According to PANews' further analysis of individual large holder addresses, several addresses with holdings exceeding $10 million have still not sold.
Who are the true diamond hands? Some addresses have earnings exceeding $10 million
During the investigation, PANews discovered that several addresses' tokens came from some of the same addresses. These addresses are mostly new addresses used by real large holders to diversify their funds. In response, PANews conducted some investigations into the true large holders behind these addresses.
Among these large holder addresses, the most eye-catching is the address J8ZWHVX5CjZWcHb1fqNVSiwjRy21WFj8mxvFDddjbHxv (hereinafter referred to as 'J8ZWH').
This address first bought 151,300 PNUT on 11-01-2024 at a cost of 10 SOL, then continuously added to the position, holding a maximum of 28 million PNUT, with an average holding price of about $0.0001. Calculating at a maximum of $2.46, his return could reach 24,600 times. On November 2, he sold 15.97 million PNUT for a profit of $109,371. He currently still holds nearly $12.6 million worth of PNUT.
Another address 2h7s3FpSvc6v2oHke6Uqg191B5fPCeFTmMGnh5oPWhX7 (tonkadriving.sol) is also quite legendary. This address discovered PNUT on November 1 and invested massively, spending $67,000 to buy 9.15 million PNUT when the market cap of PNUT was only about $7.3 million. He completed the position in just half an hour, and during his buying process, he raised the token price to $0.01. However, other players began to sell, while tonkadriving.sol continued to absorb chips, ultimately completing the initial position at an average price of $0.007.
On November 3, tonkadriving.sol sent 4 million PNUT to the creator of PNUT, which was worth $244,000 at the time. If tonkadriving.sol had known that these tokens would eventually be worth over $10 million, would he have regretted this donation?
Early internal market players forgot $22 and turned it into $2.91 million
For MEME players, many like to seize the internal market; the earlier they buy, the higher the yield. After analyzing 276 internal market addresses participating in the internal market, PANews found that only 4 addresses finally appeared within the top 1000 holding rankings.
For example, address B8S2aupPvX3ARWgyEYS1gbHc3jTb2Ta4Q2i37HUewGnf used two addresses to make purchases during the internal market, spending about $280 to buy 13.75 million PNUT tokens, which were almost entirely sold for $5,657 within the following two days. By November 16, this address spent $148,000 to buy back 86,000 PNUT coins. Based on the earliest holdings, he missed out on a maximum of $34.1 million.
The strongest internal market player is gUPH84k3YhMSjXSfXrTAUzCjuqQinQMZg9TkAkoSR77, which spent $22 to buy 2.37 million PNUT in the internal market and has not traded since. Currently, these tokens are worth about $2.91 million. His return rate has reached 132,000 times and should be considered a model of the $10U battle god. However, from trading habits, this address is very likely a trading bot address that is still conducting hundreds of dollars in high-frequency trading. Perhaps the owner of the address has long forgotten that his thoughtless act at the time has already yielded unimaginable returns. Another internal market address CrjPMnpDyJ16qpo1hR74iEQ2bypvAeMqxmxm42tB9ppr also purchased for $22, choosing to sell a fixed 5,902 tokens each time, and has sold $194,000 to date, with the account still holding tokens worth about $82,000.
It seems that the way to maintain the highest returns is to forget about it, but not entirely forget.
In the process of analyzing PNUT, we have seen many fortunate wealth stories, as well as some regrets. Many addresses had very low holding costs in the early stages, but almost all sold off before PNUT truly rose. From the trading habits, we can see the style of these players; many of them do not hold large amounts of capital and choose to liquidate completely when their investments grow from a few dozen dollars to thousands. However, they do not realize that they missed out on tens of millions of dollars in profits, and this could very likely have been the biggest opportunity in their trading career.
Those with large funds generally remain calm. They invest tens of thousands to millions of dollars but choose to hold steady, at most choosing to pull back their principal when profits are significant. The rest is just letting the bullets fly for a while. Perhaps a saying fits here: a person can only earn money within their cognitive limits.
But speaking of which, as an ordinary person, it is already not easy to earn dozens of times in a single trade. Moreover, without the release of these chips, PNUT might have found it difficult to become the MEME king of November.
