First, the viewpoint: The trend of SOL in the 4-hour timeframe: down!
The price trend of Solana $SOL shows significant downward pressure, especially after the large bearish candle on December 2, with an increased magnitude of price retracement, indicating strong selling pressure in the market.
From the market perspective, SOL's price shows signs of fatigue and may continue to face greater downside risks.
1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis: Formation of a short-term downward trend
In the past few days, SOL's price has shown a clear retracement from its high, especially on December 2, when a large bearish candle appeared, indicating a strengthening of selling power. This large bearish candle not only broke the price's upward structure but also formed signs of a downward trend in the short term. Particularly in the 4-hour timeframe, the highs are gradually decreasing, showing a downward pattern that further confirms the dominance of bearish sentiment in the market in the short term.
2. Technical Indicator Analysis: Strengthening of bearish forces
MACD: In the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD histogram remains negative and has expanded, indicating that bearish forces are strengthening. Although at the daily level, DIF and DEA remain positive, there is a risk of an imminent downward crossover. If this crossover occurs, it may indicate that the price will weaken further, and bearish forces will be stronger.
RSI: In the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI is close to the oversold area (37.78) but has not fully entered the oversold zone, indicating a possibility of some rebound. Nonetheless, market sentiment remains bearish, and the likelihood of a strong rebound in the short term is low. The daily RSI has fallen from a high to around 50, indicating a relatively neutral market sentiment, but bearish signs still dominate.
EMA: Currently, SOL's price has fallen below the EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120, which are short-term and medium-term moving averages, especially in the 4-hour timeframe, where these moving averages exert significant pressure on the price. The current price operates below these moving averages, further enhancing the bearish sentiment in the market.
3. Volume Analysis: Strong selling pressure
On December 2, SOL's trading volume significantly increased, accompanied by a price drop, indicating substantial selling pressure in the market. As the price declines, an increase in trading volume often means there is strong selling power in the market. In the subsequent few periods, trading volume decreased, and market sentiment gradually shifted to a wait-and-see approach.
According to the current technical analysis, SOL is in a downward trend in the 4-hour timeframe, with bearish forces gradually strengthening. The MACD indicator, RSI indicator, and EMA all show significant downward pressure on the price.
In the short term, SOL's price may continue to oscillate between 220 USDT and 215 USDT and may find support near these two points. However, if the price breaks below 210 USDT, the downside risk will further increase.
