Original author: Wenser, Odaily.
Reprint: Lawrence, Mars Finance.
Latest data shows that XRP's market cap once surpassed $136.2 billion, overtaking USDT to reclaim the title of 'third largest cryptocurrency by market cap', returning to levels seen before the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit. In the past month, XRP's price has surpassed $2.3, increasing nearly fourfold, and the market is optimistic about XRP's future performance.
The combination of macro and micro factors has led to a surge in XRP's market cap.
According to Infinite Market Cap data, based on a market cap of $136.2 billion, XRP's market cap briefly surpassed China Life Insurance, ranking 139th among global assets; currently, its market cap has retreated to around $132.8 billion. Overall, XRP's market cap surge mainly stems from multiple positive factors on both macro and micro levels.
On a macro level: Trump's ascendance is expected to help settle the 'XRP vs SEC dispute'.
With Trump's successful election as the new President of the United States, the six-year debate over 'whether XRP is a security' between Ripple and the SEC may reach a final ruling, after all, as a 'crypto-friendly president', Trump is expected to play a positive role in the future development of the crypto industry.
Meanwhile, as an active participant in the US presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC ahead of the 2024 elections, making it one of the largest donors alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz for Fairshake. Recently, it donated an additional $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence crypto political inclinations.
On the other hand, within the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies, including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm, are vying for relevant positions, seeking to have a voice in his planned reforms of US policy, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has frequently voiced concerns about potential changes in cryptocurrency regulations under President Trump, mentioning: 'Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as the new pro-crypto regulatory shifts are expected to bring new hope and potentially resolve years-long legal disputes.'
Subsequently, he pointed out: 'The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, selecting winners and losers for six years... and it has been four years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually dissipate, we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, the headwinds are becoming tailwinds, and for those of us who believe in XRP's future, the opportunities are immense.' Moreover, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the progress of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple was that 'the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted by January 15, 2025.' Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved the final judgment on the resolved Ripple class action and ordered a stay on the remaining unresolved lawsuits, shortening the class action timeline and paving the way for the trial to begin on January 21, 2025. Additionally, it has been reported that current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may resign before or after Trump's inauguration, which also contributed to XRP's prior price increase.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is exactly the first day Trump took office. Thus, it can be said that Trump will play a 'key role' in this 'battle between crypto institutions and regulators'.
On a micro level: 1 billion XRP locked in custody, stablecoin release imminent.
From the perspective of project development, XRP may also 'bloom again'.
One of the important reasons directly boosting XRP's price increase may be the '1 billion XRP tokens locked in custody' that occurred early this morning. According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 2:21 AM today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in custody wallets, valued at approximately $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses custody accounts to provide transparency and certainty to the XRP market. The company locks most of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not supply excess to the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in custody accounts to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from custody accounts each month does not mean that all of them will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutions or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a crypto payment company, Ripple plans to expand into the stablecoin sector. In mid-November, Ripple announced that it will soon launch the US dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), designed specifically for enterprise use cases (such as payments), focusing on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meeting the growing demand for US dollar-denominated transactions. Reports suggest this stablecoin may launch on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also taken many actions to promote industry collaboration. In October, digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, supported by market B2C 2 and Keyrock to enhance its liquidity. Additionally, according to official news, the crypto payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing, and managing XRP using their MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a collaboration with Archax and UK asset management company ABRDN PLC to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Under a series of positive news, Ripple and XRP welcome their 'second spring in crypto'.
Moreover, the XRP ETF will serve as the next highlight of the crypto market, continuously attracting market attention.
Industry insiders actively express their stance: Will the XRP ETF be the first to go live?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that an XRP ETF is 'inevitable'. His main basis comes from the increasing share of Bitcoin spot ETF growth. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holding of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded 1.12 million BTC (about 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holding value has reached $108.9 billion.
Dune Data Dashboard
At the same time, XRP has received strong support from crypto industry professionals from different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has started: WisdomTree fires the 'first shot', followed closely by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares.
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in the state of Delaware, USA. The company has confirmed that this registration is legitimate, and WisdomTree manages assets exceeding $100 billion.
Meanwhile, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, stated: 'Currently, there are 3 ETF applications holding the third largest cryptocurrency by market cap, XRP.'
Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETF applications. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in.
'Grayscale Select': XRP has now joined the crypto investment portfolio.
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, offering investment opportunities in XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger, which supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale announced again that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to eligible accredited investors.
And the result proves that Grayscale's choice was very wise: according to statistics, Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value increased significantly in November. According to Cryptorank data, its cryptocurrency holdings' market cap grew by over 85% in the past month, mainly driven by tokens including XRP (which saw an increase of over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple.
In November, Ripple announced it would invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, with the specific investment amount undisclosed. Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, previously known as 'European XRP ETP', is part of Bitwise's suite of crypto asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in Bitwise funds aligns very well with the growing interest in crypto asset-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise announced that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has surpassed $80 million in asset management scale, with Ripple as one of the investors. This product is traded on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry insiders are expressing their stance: Solana, BNB, ADA, and others are all showing support.
Just today, Solana co-founder Toly stated: 'We need a national XRP reserve.' This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's previous emphasis on 'establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin'.
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that since XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US Securities and Exchange Commission may abandon the Ripple case. This news originated from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a 'great CEO' and describing their interaction as 'very collaborative'. This public exchange has led to speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore establishing a strategic partnership.
Data perspective: market trading is active, with multiple data points reaching historical highs.
From a market data perspective, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by over 100% in just seven days, with the biggest contributors being cryptocurrencies including XRP. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke through 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, regarding contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total open positions for XRP futures contracts across the network have reached 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, Bybit's XRP contract open positions stand at 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP breaks through $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeds $25 billion, currently touching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating a high level of trading activity relative to its market cap.
On another note, influenced by various positive news, the number of XRP-related posts on Platform X has reached 480,000, even surpassing the meme-characteristic DOGE-related content.
One of the content indicators on Platform X
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the 'third cryptocurrency ETF' in the US market after BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: Where is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market cap briefly returned to pre-SEC/Ripple lawsuit levels, this six-year 'first cryptocurrency regulatory case' originating from 2018 is about to reach its conclusion, and there are differing views in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of the large Japanese financial services company SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issues are resolved, Ripple should quickly prepare for an IPO. (Odaily Planet Daily note: SBI Holdings has been collaborating with Ripple since 2017 to promote innovations in cross-border payments. Kitao is a key figure in the Ripple-SBI partnership and joined Ripple's board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017 when he predicted XRP would become the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although similar proposals had been previously shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, they can also be seen as one of the potential directions for Ripple's future.
After all, with the further improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment, more 'cryptocurrency concept stocks' may land in the US.
