The question for Federal Reserve officials is why they should cut interest rates while the economy remains strong and inflation is heating up again.
Beyond imagination
On November 27, just hours before the U.S. Department of Commerce released an important inflation report, the agency issued updated GDP figures for Q3.
The new report shows that the world's number one economy remains surprisingly resilient with a normalized annual growth rate of 2.8%. The good news is that growth has exceeded 2% in 8 out of the last 9 quarters.
Consumer spending - which now accounts for about 70% of economic activity - accelerated by 3.5% in Q3. This figure is higher than the 2.8% recorded in Q2 and is the best result since Q4/2023.
Behind the strength of consumers is a labor market that is equally robust, contrary to concerns from some experts that high interest rates are weighing on the employment picture.
In October, the labor market hardly grew as businesses added only 12,000 jobs. The "cart" stalled partly due to the impact of two major storms and a strike by 33,000 Boeing workers.
However, since January 2024, the economy has still been creating an average of 170,000 jobs per month. The labor market not only regained nearly 22 million jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic but also added another 6.5 million jobs.
Moreover, at 4.1%, the unemployment rate is indeed unlikely to keep many experts awake at night.
Mr. Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategy Director at U.S. Bank Asset Management, assessed: "Compared to historical unemployment rates, a figure around 4% is quite favorable [for the economy]."
If any investor is still concerned, then consider one of the best measures of labor market strength, which is the employment rate of the golden population group.
This is a measure focusing on the employment rate of the population aged 25 to 54, rather than those who may still be in school or have retired. According to the chart below, this rate reached 80.9% in August, the highest since early 2001.
Not only are more workers employed, but average wages are also rising. The annual wage growth rate has outpaced inflation for 16 consecutive months due to significant price pressures easing from the peak in summer 2022.
Real wages (adjusted for inflation) have improved across all three income groups, with the strongest increase for low-income workers and a moderate increase for the middle class.
Overall, a slowdown in job growth does not mean the labor market is no longer strong. In fact, the labor market continues to create jobs, albeit at a slightly lower pace.
This is nothing to worry about, at least at this moment. As the economy approaches full employment, job growth tends to slow down due to the decreasing number of workers needing to "sit on the sidelines."
Not enough basis
After raising interest rates from nearly 0% to 5.5% and maintaining high borrowing costs for over a year, the Fed just lowered rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September. Afterwards, the U.S. central bank continued to cut an additional 25 bps in November.
In policy statements, Fed officials expressed that the health of the labor market is now just as important as the fight against inflation. Therefore, they expect to cut interest rates more in the coming year.
However, with a solid labor market and relatively stable consumer spending, policymakers seem to lack sufficient arguments to continue lowering interest rates, at least at the next meeting on December 17-18.
Instead, in the context of inflation showing signs of heating up again, the Fed should consider pausing to observe the broader picture before pushing interbank borrowing costs lower.
As mentioned, on November 27, the U.S. Department of Commerce also released a report on the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI, the preferred inflation measure of central bank officials).
In October, PCEPI rose by 2.3% compared to the same month last year. This figure is 0.2 percentage point higher than the result recorded in September and also exceeds the Fed's target level of 2%.
Excluding the prices of volatile energy and food, core PCEPI has risen even more. This measure increased by 2.8% compared to a year ago, higher by 0.1 percentage point compared to September. The Fed generally focuses on the core index to assess long-term inflation trends.
The chart below shows that core inflation has fluctuated between 2.6% and 2.8% since February. Prices generally remain high in the services sector, in items such as rent, dining out, and auto insurance.
In another development, amid predictions that Donald Trump will return to the White House in early 2025, the economic agenda of the elected president is expected to stimulate rising inflation.
Therefore, alongside the recent hot inflation figures, Fed officials should also consider the impact of Trump's policy series.
Earlier last week, Trump announced on social media Truth Social that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada.
Currently, U.S. importers still rely on cheap product sources from abroad, especially from China. If they cannot find affordable substitute products, prices will rise.
Mr. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, warned in a new note that the tariffs Trump mentioned would significantly increase consumer prices in the U.S.
"....a 1% actual tariff increase would push core PCEPI up by an additional 0.1%. We estimate that if the proposed tariff is implemented, core PCEPI would increase by about 0.9%," the expert noted.
The future White House occupant also wants to significantly reduce tax rates for individuals and businesses. During the campaign, he proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.
Expansionary fiscal policies often help stimulate growth, but they also carry the risk of pushing inflationary pressures.
Additionally, labor costs will rise as businesses compete to replace low-wage workers if Trump's new administration seeks to expel large numbers of illegal immigrants.
In a study at the end of November, economist Brett Ryan from Deutsche Bank emphasized: "Recent data shows that the pace of inflation decline has slowed. Trump's policies will reinforce those signals."
Mr. Ryan predicts that inflation measured by core PCEPI will "level off" around 2.5% or higher throughout 2026, even as Fed officials have shown their intention to continue lowering interest rates.
In recent days, investors have become more skeptical about the Fed's ability to lower interest rates. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December is currently 66% - down from 82.7% a month ago.
At the same time, investors expect the U.S. central bank to only lower interest rates by an additional 75 basis points from now until the end of 2025, a significant reduction from before.