Source: Talking about Li's Words
With the recent performance of ETH prices and the rapid rise of some altcoins in the short term, I have noticed that many people are starting to discuss the topic of altcoin season again. Many KOLs have also seized upon everyone's preferences, vigorously recommending various altcoin projects through social media with slogans of 10-50 times.
Now:
V Dog has turned back into V God.
Some previously neglected junk VC coins have been added back to people's watchlists.
Various so-called signal teachers have become active again and are flaunting their profits.
Those so-called eternal profit masters online are telling you that they actually heavily invested in the coins that have risen these days.
And so on...
It seems that no matter how fiercely criticized before, as long as there are a few big bullish candles, people's attitudes can undergo a 180-degree shift. Those who previously insisted that there would be no altcoin season in this bull market are now asking everyone: Which coin should I invest in now?
Just today, I saw Hui Jie mention in the group: isn't trading just a game of ambush and waiting!
I think this statement is very representative.
In the investment field (including the crypto market), if you want to achieve some success, you need to have a certain level of control over your emotions and strictly form your own trading discipline. In other words, we should try to ignore all FUD, avoid being directly influenced by others' emotions, and instead conduct our own research (DYOR) and form our own understanding.
I remember in October, we mentioned in an article that BTC might welcome a new round of upward movement. As shown in the figure below.
With the breakthrough at a key position back then, BTC rose by about 58% in less than 2 months and continued to break new ATHs, peaking close to $100,000. However, as BTC has now re-entered a phase of consolidation, most people who missed out still hold a viewpoint similar to that after BTC's previous rise: Bitcoin has risen a lot, it's better to wait for a pullback to buy!
As for how much of a pullback there might be next, I do not know. However, I can foresee that even if there is a pullback, most people will still not buy. This mentality is actually quite common, and we have mentioned (or seen) similar situations many times in previous articles from Talking about Li's Words. As shown in the figure below.
When prices do not rise/fall, they curse it as garbage, and when it rises, they wait for a pullback, and when it pulls back, they dare not buy... When prices do not rise/fall, they continue to curse it as garbage, and it just repeats like this. Either they are always hoping to buy at the lowest point (sell at the highest), or they fall into a state of missing out completely. And those who have missed out a few times and finally can't resist entering the market will often fall into a new cycle of chasing highs and selling lows...
In short, for many people, trading seems so entangled, and in this constant entanglement, they either break down their mindset or lose their principal.
Just like we mentioned in the previous article (December 1): even if I plainly tell you now that BTC and ETH are still on an upward trend overall, to be honest, for many people, participating now is likely to result in them not being able to hold on, or they will likely fall into a state of chasing highs and selling lows. Unless you have good self-risk management skills and can strictly manage your positions and set reasonable goals.
Goal setting can be divided into two types; many people tend to set 'profit-taking' goals while neglecting 'loss-cutting' goals. Remember, no one can achieve eternal profits in the investment field; always leave yourself a Plan B.
These days, with the rise of some altcoins, many people's FOMO emotions seem to have resurfaced. As shown in the figure below. Those who were previously stuck in altcoins might be considering whether to withdraw their principal. Meanwhile, those who missed out and think BTC or ETH is too expensive may be looking for others to ask for new wealth passwords.
I remember in a previous article from Talking about Li's Words, we shared an Altcoin Season Index. As shown in the figure below.
From the reflection of this altcoin season index, it has now reached the highest level since January 2024, which also means that many altcoins' increases are beginning to lead Bitcoin again, and a new round of altcoin season seems to have begun. As shown in the figure below.
In fact, regarding the altcoin season, many people were not optimistic for a while, and even some big figures said that this bull market would not see another altcoin season. But this might still be a matter of understanding; it can only be said that if we want to see an altcoin season like the last bull market where 'all coins soar together,' there may not be much opportunity. However, once the speculation opportunity arises, some altcoins (there are too many projects born in this cycle, perhaps only 15-20% of altcoins have a chance) may rise significantly in the short term. As shown in the figure below.
Due to liquidity issues, the performance of altcoin season is often reflected in the rotation of sectors. Based on historical experience, the general direction is:
First, traditional high-market-cap tokens will see a rise, such as the representative XRP, ADA, DOT and other so-called old coins, their rise often indicates the possible beginning of altcoin season.
Secondly, there are some 'representative' new projects, as well as relatively low-market-cap projects that will be pumped. The market makers have already accumulated chips beforehand, and when the timing is right, they will pump and create a bigger FOMO atmosphere to attract retail investors. Of course, some high FDV new projects still need to pay attention to unlocking issues.
Finally, various celebrities/business representatives are bringing their 'retail investors' into the market; in the last bull market, the main entry was through issuing various NFTs, engaging in chain games, and the metaverse, while this round of bull market will likely focus on issuing Memes.
As for the very end, it may be like historical patterns, after a bull market, there will only be a mess left and a group of retail investors stuck at the peak blowing in the wind. However, in the process above, there are indeed many wealth opportunities, but such opportunities are often only grasped by a small number of people who can escape safely.
Of course, historical experiences cannot fully represent the present and future; they are only a reference for new possibilities. Therefore, if you want to participate in the process mentioned above, you should consider several questions in advance:
Are you entering this field with an investment mindset? Or a speculative mindset? Or a gambling mindset?
How much time and energy can you dedicate to this field? For example, in learning, data research, etc.?
What is your goal in this field? 1x? 10x? Or 100x?
Are you doing short-term, mid-term, or long-term investments? What do you define as short-term or long-term?
What is your risk preference? Do you prefer high market cap, mid-low market cap, or low market cap projects?
Do you casually believe others (KOLs, etc.) when trading, or do you already have your own investment strategy or logic?
What indicators do you currently use to assist your trading and avoid falling into emotional trading?
If you are stuck in some projects, what is your Plan B?
In short, the market is always changing, but human nature seems to never change, and what we need to do is to try to grasp some cyclical patterns within it and use them to our advantage. In a cycle, if some people can make quick and big money, it means that certainly, some will lose money. And in this market, perhaps only 1% of people can truly make money. As the market continues to change, V God can turn into V Dog, and V Dog can turn back into V God, but a gambling dog will always be a gambling dog (the term here is just a reference, I do not mean to belittle anyone, please do not take it personally).
Note: The above content is just personal opinions and analysis, only for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article have no direct interest relationship with Talking about Li's Words (Talking about Li's Words does not accept any advertising from project parties), please evaluate the safety of the corresponding projects or websites on your own. Investment always carries risks; do not enter unfamiliar situations, and do not play in situations where you cannot afford to lose.
