Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, with low market trading volume and an overall consolidation pattern. The US stock market is about to make history again, with 2024 projected to be one of the best performing years in history, and 5 out of the last 6 years have seen double-digit returns. Market breadth remains supportive, and the difference between the number of new highs and new lows in stocks over 52 weeks still looks healthy, with an upward trend intact and the volatility index (VIX) on a downward trend.
After Trump announced that Scott Bessent would serve as Treasury Secretary, the US bond market returned to calm, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 35 basis points from its October peak. Bessent's proposed 3-3-3 plan has brought relief to the US fixed income market, and since his nomination, the yield curve premium has remained stable at current levels. Although there are still doubts about his core views, reporters studying his early speeches found that due to central banks' continued accumulation, he is 'long-term bullish' on gold. Will this have a spillover effect on Bitcoin, especially in light of recent discussions on strategic reserve portfolios?
Traders will return to a busy week, anticipating the release of this year's final non-farm payroll data. The market expects overall employment data to rebound to around +160,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at about 4.3%. Despite recent concerns about rising inflation just surfacing, the market still estimates about a 65% chance of interest rate cuts, but considering the strong economic conditions, the forward rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have been significantly reduced.
Optimism in the cryptocurrency market remains prevalent, but this week's focus is on Ripple, which surged an astonishing 73% amid expectations that the government will withdraw its long-term lawsuit. This significant rally has helped XRP surpass USDT, becoming the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Whale addresses have actively bought (and are now selling) XRP over the past month. The current rally is mainly concentrated on mainstream coins (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the charge, while altcoins are still struggling to return to January's highs.
Although the recent success of Layer 2 and protocol-transformation blockchains (such as Hyperliquid) continues to dominate attention in the cryptocurrency market, we have seen some improvement in Ethereum through ETH ETF inflows, with over $330 million flowing in last Friday. Regardless, the fundamental indicators for cryptocurrency remain optimistic, with the market cap of stablecoins finally surpassing the highs of the Terra-Luna period. As investors pour in more new funds, will we see faster growth in the new year? Let's hope so!
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