Today, the old mainstream has welcomed a wave of sustained increases led by XRP. The main reason may be that investors in these varieties have already been washed out quite a bit, making the load lighter. Bitcoin is currently testing the support near 95000 downwards. According to the liquidation map, the support near 95000 is still quite strong for the past seven days, with resistance above around 99000. In the evening, when American institutions are at work, it is expected to easily push up, so there is actually nothing to worry about during the daytime retracement.
From the perspective of Bitcoin's market cap share, there is still some room for a pullback below, indicating that altcoins still have some room for a rebound.
In the past month, the total market cap of altcoins ranked outside the top 10 has doubled, while Bitcoin has increased by 50%. Simply put, if your account did not double in the past month, you have underperformed the average altcoin increase. If the increase is less than 50%, you have even underperformed Bitcoin.
Currently, there is a clear switch in funding in the market. Previously, Bitcoin + memes was a combination, while the traditional altcoins driven by Ethereum are now a combination. The Solana series has already exploded, so it is temporarily sinking, while the BSC series has yet to explode. In the past ten days, funds have clearly moved out of Bitcoin speculation and into the Ethereum system, and funds from on-chain meme coins have also followed. It is currently believed that this wave of traditional altcoin speculation will continue.
In the past two years, the price of Bitcoin has increased sixfold, but altcoins have only increased by less than three times. Considering that the funding environment is nowhere near as good as in 2021, expectations for this round of altcoins have been significantly lowered. If we can achieve several times with a full position, we will be very satisfied.
After this round, most people have understood the impact of the macro funding environment on altcoins. Similar to small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 index, during the liquidity phase, the Russell 2000 can significantly outperform large-cap tech stocks, and altcoins can significantly outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, even in a bull cycle, during a balance sheet reduction, holding altcoins for 85% of the time can be very painful. In the next bull-bear cycle, we need to consider the macro funding environment to determine the best allocation of cryptocurrencies.
In addition to the altcoin market brought by some fund switching, there is another possibility next year: a new batch of ETF applications may be approved. Currently, the media has reported that there are four altcoins applying for an ETF, with two more preparing. These ETF applications may be the foundation for the next wave of altcoin markets, but the timeline is likely 2025 or even later. This is the second wave of potential markets that can be considered under macro conditions without liquidity easing.
Speaking of ETH, last Friday, the Ethereum ETF saw a single-day capital inflow of over $330 million, while the same day, Bitcoin's capital inflow was only $320 million. This is the first day in human history when the Ethereum ETF has beaten Bitcoin in terms of inflows, even trending on social media. Therefore, the performance of Ethereum over the weekend was quite good, with the price reaching a maximum of 3760.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has also exceeded 0.038, which can be considered a slight rebound. It is still quite a way from Ethereum's true explosion, as Bitcoin has reached new highs so many times, while Ethereum has not even returned to this year's highs of 3977 in May and 4093 in March. It is still 1000 dollars away from the historical high of 4800, which is much further than Bitcoin’s distance to 100k. We can only say that Ethereum still has a lot of room for growth.
In December, millions of dollars will flow into the cryptocurrency market, so adjust your altcoin positions quickly.
Here are the altcoins that I think are worth accumulating.
NEAR
NEAR is very close to breaking through. Putting puns aside, it does look that way. The downward trend line extending to early 2022 has now become resistance again. However, since the price is currently above the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a breakout may not be far off.
If a breakout occurs, the first target will be to break the next Fibonacci level of $8.53. However, more importantly, the $NEAR bulls will need to push the price higher and break the volatility high of $9.11. If this happens, the downward trend will be officially broken, and it is likely to continue rising from there.
PEPE
Born from the popular meme 'Pepe the Frog', PEPE has naturally attracted attention since its inception, with market acceptance skyrocketing. The 'no tax + burn' dual mechanism cleverly alleviates inflation concerns, having once created a market cap achievement of $1.6 billion. Now, community enthusiasm remains high, and demand is bullish, preparing to continue writing the legend and expanding its territory.
ACT
Elon Musk has retweeted content about AI agents for two consecutive days, indicating a significant rise in interest in this sector, which is expected to continue to soar in the future. The Western world composed of AI agents is the most imaginative and hottest sector in this bull market. This is why I have always firmly held ACT, as the beta of the sector will directly capture the entire sector's dividends.
Currently, ACT is the only token related to AI agents on the Binance platform, giving it a scarcity advantage.
The $ACT community is doing everything possible to help the development of AI memes. Currently, many AI agents are already working around ACT.
AI memes are the most important sector for on-chain assets and may even recreate a meme ecosystem. As the only AI meme traded on major exchanges, ACT = AI meme sector index.
