At the beginning of December, I was looking at earning $100,000 in Bitcoin, but as this month, different from others, comes to a close, I can no longer earn $100,000.
Volatility below historical highs has Bitcoin traders speculating on when the magical six-figure BTC price tag will appear.
November 2024 saw the largest single-month dollar increase in Bitcoin's monthly candlestick chart.
Funding rates indicate that market conditions are not showing signs of overheating, which is a key factor supporting further increases in gold prices.
Before the Fed announces its key rate decision, the U.S. released a bounty of employment data this week.
The on-chain profit trend is guiding a classic parabolic bull market atmosphere through the rare SOPR "golden cross."
Bitcoin forms a 'bull flag' below $100,000.
After validating a key breakout in BTC price in November, Bitcoin avoided flash volatility during weekly closes.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, on December 2, BTC/USD was still hovering around $95,000, circling below what many consider a watershed level: $100,000.
Combining the recent BTC price movements, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed a successful support retest.
In a recent X post, he wrote about the daily chart: "After successfully retesting the support level around $91,000 (red), Bitcoin has rebounded by +7%."
"In the short term, it is worth observing how the price continues to develop within a potential bull flag structure."
Rekt Capital added that if the daily close exceeds $97,450, it "may trigger further trend continuation and approach $100,000 again."
On the downside, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan noted that the current support levels are at $95,000 and $90,000.
Trader Kevin Svenson inferred in his X post, based on a 4-hour time frame study, that "a retest of the support level is possible in the short term."
"Despite this in the short term, I still hold a bullish bias overall."
The attached chart marks $93,500 as the next potential support retest area.
Monthly BTC price performance: "A new game."
Bitcoin may not have reached $100,000 yet, but last weekend, the BTC price movement quietly made history.
The monthly price ceiling for BTC/USD in November was $96,400, setting the record for the largest single-month dollar increase in history.
"This is a new situation," responded Cory Klippsten, CEO of investment platform Swan Bitcoin, with optimism.
This candlestick stands out significantly on the monthly chart, becoming an unprecedented phenomenon, but from a percentage perspective, it is actually not unusual.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that the increase in November was just over 37%, failing to compare with Bitcoin's most successful month in November this year.
For Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, quantifying Bitcoin and digital asset funds, this should balance out soon.
"In every cycle, we get 4-7 months of crazy Bitcoin price discovery returns. November just brought us the first one!" he argued over the weekend.
"The next few months will present crazy long-term opportunities. The average person's mindset is not ready yet."
Edwards continued that breaking through the $100,000 barrier will inject a new wave of parabolic behavior into the price.
"True FOMO begins above $100,000. Once the epic sell wall collapses, we enter a supply vacuum, and new retail drives infinite bidding. Do the math," he wrote.
Previously, Edwards stated that Bitcoin should replicate gold after breaking through key resistance levels this year.
Funding rates remain stable.
Market stability is likely giving Bitcoin a chance to adapt to six-figure prices.
As popular trader Jelle pointed out this week, despite prices nearing historical highs, funding rates across exchanges remain at manageable levels.
"Many people are talking about the need for a larger price correction; the market is unhealthy. Meanwhile, the price fell to $95,000 near baseline funding," he told his X followers.
Even as BTC/USD continues to set new records, funding remains loose for several weeks.
"Considering the number of people recently giving 'top signals', Bitcoin's funding rates remain very low..." popular analysis account Bitcoindata21 echoed on X last week.
Bitcoindata21 compares the current Bitcoin bull market to 2021 when funding rates were several times higher. Even in March 2024, when BTC/USD hit an all-time high of $73,800, funding rates also spiked significantly.
U.S. employment data is in the spotlight.
As the countdown to the Fed's next interest rate decision begins, the labor market becomes the focus of this week's U.S. macroeconomic data releases.
Job openings will be released on December 3, followed by unemployment claims two days later, and the unemployment report the following week.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized while commenting on the macro diary: "This is an important week for the labor market."
Kobeissi pointed out that this data is "the last week of labor market data before the December 18 Fed meeting."
On December 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide whether to adjust the benchmark interest rate. As Cointelegraph continues to report, the overall bets still lean towards another 0.25% decline, but the market is more uncertain than in previous months.
The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 67% chance of a 0.25% rate cut currently.
Alan from Material Indicators continued: "If Bitcoin does not break out before the December 18 FOMC meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut could not only be an early Christmas gift but also act as a catalyst for BTC to break through $100,000."
"On the other hand, not cutting rates could become a catalyst for triggering a correction and a BTC flash sale."
The Bitcoin indicator golden cross suggests a "significant increase."
Bitcoin analysis is uncovering new signals supporting the continuation of the upward trend.
Related: Fund strategists echo a six-figure BTC price target, expected to exceed $250,000 in 2025.
This week, attention is on the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), as it printed the second "golden cross" in the current bull market.
CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan emphasized this event and stated its impact is clear.
He wrote in one of CryptoQuant's Quicktake blog posts on December 2: "After a golden cross, the market usually starts a strong rise within two months at the latest."
"The upcoming surge is likely to be a significant increase in the 'final phase of the upward cycle.'"
SOPR measures whether the tokens used in on-chain transactions are rising or falling relative to the price of the previous transaction, indicating on-chain profitability. A golden cross occurs when the 30-day moving average of this metric exceeds its 365-day moving average.
The post continued: "As the market enters the later stages of the cycle, the magnitude of increases tends to be greater, while the period of declines/corrections tends to be shorter."
"If a significant increase indicated by this metric occurs between the end of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, new inflows and additional capital can be expected to enter the market, pushing it to a peak."
Previously, Cointelegraph reported that the selling pressure from experienced Bitcoin holders had increased.
