Original title: (XRP's market value returns to third in crypto, is XRP ETF taking the lead?)
Original author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Latest data shows that XRP's market value once exceeded $136.2 billion, surpassing USDT to reclaim the title of "third-largest cryptocurrency by market value," returning to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit in 2020.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily provided a detailed analysis of the "US court ruling that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws" in August, see (XRP once surged over 20%, Ripple's phased victory in the SEC lawsuit) article. Nearly 4 months later, the price of XRP has surpassed $2.3, increasing nearly fourfold, and the market is optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and organize the recent situation and related information about Ripple and XRP in this article for readers' reference.
The dual effects of macro and micro factors have led to a surge in XRP's market value.
According to Infinite Market Cap data, with a market value of $136.2 billion, XRP's market value briefly surpassed China Life, ranking 139th among global assets; currently, its market value has retreated to around $132.8 billion. Overall, XRP's market value surge is mainly due to multiple positive factors on both macro and micro levels:
On a macro level: Trump's rise to power is expected to help resolve the "XRP vs SEC dispute".
With Trump successfully elected as the new President of the United States, the long-standing debate over whether XRP is a security, which has lasted 6 years between Ripple and the SEC, may finally reach a decisive conclusion. After all, as a "crypto-friendly president," Trump is expected to play a positive role in the further development of the crypto industry.
Meanwhile, as an active participant in the US presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC before the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated an additional $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence crypto political tendencies.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies, including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm, are competing for relevant positions, seeking a voice in his planned US policy reforms, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has frequently spoken out, emphasizing the potential changes in cryptocurrency regulation under the leadership of President Trump, mentioning that "Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as the new pro-crypto regulatory shift is expected to bring new hope and possibly resolve years-long legal disputes."
He then pointed out: "The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for 6 years... and it has been 4 years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly, unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually fade away, we are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, and the headwind is becoming a tailwind; for those of us who believe in XRP's future, the opportunity is immense." Not only that, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the progress of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple was that "the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted by January 15, 2025." Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final judgment on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered a suspension of the remaining unresolved lawsuits, a decision that shortened the class action timeline and paved the way for the trial to start on January 21, 2025. In addition, current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler previously stated he might resign before or shortly after Trump's inauguration, which also contributed to XRP's earlier price surge.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is exactly the first day Trump takes office. Thus, it can be said that Trump will play a "key role" in this "crypto institution vs regulatory agency dispute."
Micro level: 1 billion XRP custody lock, stablecoin release imminent.
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also "blossom anew from an old tree."
One of the key reasons directly boosting XRP's price increase may be the "1 billion XRP tokens custody lock" that occurred this morning. According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 2:21 AM today, Ripple locked 1 billion XRP in a custody wallet, worth approximately $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses a custody account system to provide transparency and certainty to the XRP market. The company locks most of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not oversupply the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also utilizes the XRP in custody accounts to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from custody accounts each month does not mean all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutional or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to a new trust.
Additionally, as a crypto payment company, Ripple plans to expand its footprint into the stablecoin sector. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced the upcoming launch of the dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is a stablecoin designed specifically for enterprise use cases (such as payments), focusing on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meeting the growing demand for dollar-denominated transactions. It is reported that this stablecoin may launch on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also taken significant action to promote industry collaboration. In October, digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, supported by market B2C 2 and Keyrock for liquidity. Additionally, according to official news, crypto payment infrastructure company MoonPay had also announced a partnership with Ripple, allowing users to purchase, store, and manage XRP using their MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a collaboration with Archax and British asset management company ABRDN PLC, planning to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Stimulated by a series of positive news, Ripple and XRP welcome a "second spring for crypto."
Moreover, the XRP ETF will continue to be a major focus in the crypto market, continuously attracting market attention.
Industry professionals are actively stating: Is the XRP ETF launching first?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is "inevitable." His main basis comes from the increasing share of Bitcoin spot ETF growth. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holdings of US Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holdings are valued at $108.9 billion.
Dune Data Panel
Meanwhile, XRP has also received strong support from crypto industry professionals from different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has started: WisdomTree takes the "first shot," followed closely by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares.
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. The company has confirmed that this is a legal filing, and it is reported that WisdomTree manages assets exceeding $100 billion.
At the same time, according to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, it was stated: "Currently, there are 3 ETF applications intending to hold the currently third-largest crypto asset XRP."
Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETF applications. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in.
"Grayscale Selected": XRP has now joined the crypto investment portfolio.
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP trust fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing an investment opportunity for exposure to XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger that supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale again stated that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds including XRP for qualified investors.
The results proved that Grayscale's choice was very wise: statistics show that Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value saw significant growth in November. According to Cryptorank data, its cryptocurrency holdings' market value increased by over 85% in the past month, mainly driven by tokens including XRP (which surged over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple.
In November, Ripple stated it would invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, with the specific investment amount not disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as "European XRP ETP" and is part of Bitwise's suite of crypto asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in Bitwise funds aligns very well with the trend of increasing interest in exchange-traded products related to crypto assets. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has assets under management exceeding $80 million, with Ripple as one of the investors. This product is listed on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry professionals are actively expressing their views: Solana, BNB, ADA, and others are all showing support.
Just today, Solana co-founder Toly stated: "We need a national XRP reserve." This statement is also seen as a response to Trump’s earlier emphasis on "establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin."
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that since XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US Securities and Exchange Commission may abandon the Ripple case. This news originated from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a "great CEO" and describing their interaction as "very collaborative." This public exchange has sparked speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore establishing a strategic partnership.
From the data perspective: Market trading is active, with multiple data points reaching historical highs.
From the market data perspective, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the South Korean market, Upbit's trading volume reportedly increased by over 100% within seven days, with the largest contributor being cryptocurrencies including XRP. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke $2.29 today, reaching the highest level since January 2018.
In addition, regarding contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total open interest of XRP futures contracts across the network is 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, hitting a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, Bybit's XRP contract open interest is 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP broke $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market value ratio of 18.4%, indicating a high level of trading activity relative to its market value.
It's worth mentioning that under the influence of various positive news, the number of posts related to XRP on platform X has reached 480,000, even far exceeding the content related to the meme coin DOGE.
One of the content indicators on platform X.
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the "third cryptocurrency ETF" in the US market after BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: What is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market value once returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, this six-year-long "first case of crypto regulation" originating from 2018 is about to reach its conclusion, and there are various opinions in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of Japan's major financial services institution SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issues are resolved, Ripple should quickly prepare for an IPO. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: It is understood that SBI Holdings has been cooperating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a key figure in the Ripple-SBI collaboration and joined Ripple's board of directors in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017, when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although similar proposals were previously put on hold by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, they can also be seen as one of the possibilities for Ripple's future direction.
After all, with the further improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment, there may be more "cryptocurrency concept stocks" landing on the US stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may welcome another wave of development peak.
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