ChainCatcher message, the rise of the 'Trump trade' in November has become a dominant factor driving global market trends. According to 4E monitoring, all three major US stock indices rose last week, with weekly gains exceeding 1%. In November, the Dow Jones rose 7.5% and the S&P rose 5.7%, both achieving the largest single-month gains of the year, while the Nasdaq rose over 6%. Large technology stocks saw a broad increase, with Tesla rising over 38% in November, marking its best performance in nearly two years, and Nvidia gaining 179.23% year-to-date. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen over 27%, compared to a 24% increase last year, leading to differing views on the outlook for US stocks.

The cryptocurrency market performed remarkably in November, attracting widespread global attention. Bitcoin's monthly gain exceeded 37%, while Ethereum's gain reached as high as 54%. Altcoins experienced significant increases by the end of the month, with their market share continuously expanding. Bitcoin's market share has fallen by 8.15% from the peak of this bull market (61.78% on November 21), while the total market capitalization of altcoins rose nearly 70% in November. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's average gain in December is notable, combined with the fact that most of Trump's cabinet are cryptocurrency investors, leading to a strong bullish sentiment in the market.

In the forex market, the US dollar fell 1.67% last week, ending an eight-week streak of gains, while accumulating a rise of 1.72% in November. The 'Trump trade' boosted the dollar in November, hindering gold's upward trend, which led to a sell-off after the election. Spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, marking the largest monthly decline since September last year. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with a weekly drop of over 3%.

In recent weeks, investors have focused on Trump's various economic policies, but at the same time, the changes in the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also been quite subtle. Although the market expects an increased probability of continued rate cuts in December, the space for rate cuts in 2025 is constantly decreasing. The 'near increase, far decrease' phenomenon largely reflects anxiety about future inflation resurgence under Trump's administration. The speeches from Powell on Thursday and the non-farm payroll data on Friday will largely set the tone for year-end rate cuts.

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