473:23, the European Union has canceled Hong Kong's special tariff treatment. Singapore is really winning by doing nothing.
Without the tariff advantage, costs will inevitably rise, and Hong Kong, as a transit point for imports and exports, will have no advantage compared to the mainland. The status of Hong Kong as a financial center will also be weakened accordingly. By the time Trump comes back, tariffs will be raised again. The economy of Hong Kong, which heavily relies on foreign trade, and even that of Guangdong, may look very bleak next year.
First, Hong Kong's re-export trade accounts for a large proportion; data shows that over 90% of goods are re-exported through Hong Kong, and changes in tariffs will raise costs and lower competitiveness.
Second, in terms of finance, foreign capital accounts for about 40% of the Hong Kong stock market, and trade shocks may lead to capital outflow, challenging its status as a financial center.
Third, Guangdong and Hong Kong have close economic and trade ties, with over 50% of enterprises cooperating. If Hong Kong encounters difficulties, orders from foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong may decrease.
Fourth, Hong Kong's tourism industry is also affected. In the past, mainland tourists accounted for over 70%, and an economic downturn will further shrink the number of visitors.
Fifth, in terms of employment, the trade and related industries absorb about 20% of the labor force. If the industry cools, employment pressure will significantly increase.
Sixth, Hong Kong is facing difficulties, and all parties need to respond actively and seek new paths; otherwise, the economic decline may last longer and have far-reaching impacts.