The Bitcoin market in 2024 is in the midst of a thrilling game. Since the last peak price of Bitcoin reached 99600, it has entered a downward correction phase. Now, the re-emerging upward trend is not a signal for the start of a new bull market, but rather seems like a carefully laid trap by capital to lure in more investors.
As the price of Bitcoin approaches 100,000, the market's greedy sentiment is completely ignited. Investors gaze at that reachable 100,000 milestone, and their desires grow wildly like weeds. However, this price of Bitcoin, which is less than 100,000 but extremely close to it, is actually the most deceptive bait. Capital understands human weaknesses well, using this subtle psychology of 'almost there but not yet' to attract many investors to rush to buy in. Because they understand that once the price of Bitcoin reaches 100,000, it will trigger huge selling pressure. At that time, the bulls will rush to lock in profits, while some sharp investors will turn to shorting. In this case, if the price falls, the profits of the operators will be divided between the bulls during the upward process and the bears during the downward process, which clearly does not align with the goal of maximizing capital interests.
Furthermore, from the perspective of institutional predictions, the extreme value of Bitcoin in this cycle is believed to be 146,000. However, the current market situation makes it unwise to directly break through 100,000 and continue to surge significantly. On one hand, the upper space is limited and it is difficult to explode the short positions to obtain sufficient profits; on the other hand, to break through 100,000 and respond to the subsequent chain reactions would require a significant amount of capital and insufficient time for adjustments, especially considering the important time point of Trump taking office in January next year. The market generally expects that Bitcoin may break through 130,000 at that time. If it breaks through 100,000 during the current rise and skyrockets to about 120,000 to explode the 100,000 short positions, then it will lose necessary upward space and adjustment time in January next year, and the entire market rhythm will be completely disrupted.
Based on the above analysis, the most likely strategy that capital will adopt is to use the previous high of 99600 as bait, creating a strong illusion of an upward surge. Driven by the market's greedy sentiment, it attracts a large amount of funds to take over. Once the funds reaching a certain scale, a downward selling mode will be triggered to realize capital's profit harvesting. For investors, during this seemingly enticing upward movement, one should not blindly follow the trend to chase the rise. On the contrary, one should calmly observe and gradually build short positions at key resistance levels, preparing to respond to the upcoming significant decline. It is expected that this round of decline will bring Bitcoin prices back to the range of 73000 to 80000, which will also accumulate strength and create conditions for the next real bull market surge. In this volatile and opportunity-filled market of Bitcoin, only by discerning the intentions of capital and maintaining rationality and calm can one remain undefeated in this brutal game.
