November ended perfectly. Throughout November, Bitcoin rose nearly 37%. Based on data from recent years, Bitcoin usually closes with a rise in November, and December typically continues to rise.

Bitcoin may change trend next week. Various data will be released in early December, including CPI, non-farm payroll, and interest rate decisions, etc. Currently, the common strategy is to start shaking out positions 2-3 days before the news lands. Even if the news is positive, it will still wash out positions to give the good news some buffer space. It's all about cleaning up the market for a better breakout. So, brothers, be careful with the positions you chase at high levels; avoid them. Hold onto your low-level positions tightly. Especially for high-leverage contracts, make sure to manage the drawdown well, or else the price may fluctuate without changing, and you could lose your position.

So far in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin has risen by 52%. Historically, the fourth and first quarters have been outstanding months for the cryptocurrency market. The rise in Bitcoin in the fourth quarter usually opens up space for altcoins to perform in the first quarter of the following year. Altcoin season may be late, but it will arrive; next year will be the official start of this four-year grand show. As Shanghai uncle says, it will make you dizzy with the gains. Next, I will mention a few ways to make money in this big trend.

1. Beta strategy:

In the early trend, large positions or even full positions in Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, BNB, etc., do not hesitate when seeing the trend emerging because the full positions are in large currencies. Holding large currencies incurs less risk on beta targets, testing one's decisiveness (whether you dare to take large positions when you see the trend rising).

2. Alpha

Select potential strong sectors' leading players through fundamentals, major events, and cyclical narratives. This considers vision and patience: vision determines whether the selected sector is strong, and patience determines whether one can withstand volatility and hold firm. All strong targets may seem obvious in hindsight, but the actual process is often tumultuous, making it easy to be shaken out. The risk is misjudging a major downward trend and not outperforming the market, leading to greater retracement when the tide goes out.

3. Super alpha methods:

This is about choosing based on the rotation of different sectors. When the trend just starts to rise, large positions are in Bitcoin, Solana, and then when it stabilizes, switch to Ethereum, including some stronger small coin sectors with greater elasticity. This requires higher standards: familiarity with market rotation rules, sensitivity to short-term strong narratives, and a certain level of technical analysis ability to gauge the strength of potential eruptions through volume and price patterns. Switching positions must be decisive. The risk is missteps leading to losses, which can easily result in missed opportunities.

4. On-chain

The bigger returns this round come from on-chain, although the win rate is low, the odds are huge. However, one cannot take large positions, only small positions to speculate on the vast space. Vision, patience, action, and discipline are all essential. To be honest, generally skilled players are not enough; it takes top-tier players.

The main idea is about spot trading, not mentioning contracts or leverage. In my personal view, contracts are amplifiers. The first, second, and third types of strategies can be applied but are not suitable for general investors. Top experts can engage, but the discipline required for contracts is the highest. It can amplify both gains and losses, so I do not recommend everyone to pursue it. If you make a mistake and do not cut losses in time, a large price fluctuation can wipe out your position.

Of course, for most, large fund beta strategies should be the ballast, and then a portion of the funds should be allocated to alpha and super alpha strategies. Small funds can focus more on the second and third types of strategies. Essentially, it's about considering four aspects: win rate, odds, slope (time cycle), and position.

The current challenge in the cryptocurrency market is that alpha strategies and super alpha strategies have very strong cyclicality. The core is an enhanced version of the trend. If the market trend reverses, the retracement speed and magnitude of all alpha can be significant. It fundamentally boils down to liquidity and emotional driving; without strong fundamentals, it's hard to go against the trend.
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