Analysis of long-term spot holding strategies (III)
In the cryptocurrency circle, the analysis of spot-related strategies is of great significance to investors. As I mentioned in the previous article on spot knowledge, spot is the basis of the entire transaction. Now let's clarify the three element assumptions involved in the previous article.
Regarding the trend node of the target, assuming that the closing price on March 13, 2024 is used as the benchmark, the CSI 300 ETF will have a two-week upward trend until March 27, which is the March option delivery date. This is just like in the cryptocurrency circle, when we predict the price trend of a certain coin in a certain period of time, we need to clarify the time range and trend direction.
In terms of decision-making cycle, consider replacing the contract that will expire in March with the April contract, and do not consider the situation in more distant months. This is similar to the cryptocurrency trading. We must adjust the strategy according to different cycle contracts, and cannot blindly look at the short-term or long-term.
The cost issue cannot be ignored. The April option contract has the lowest price among the option contracts except for March. For example, if you buy 20 options contracts with the code 10006939 at the closing price of 548 yuan on March 19, you need to pay a premium of about 11,680 yuan based on the closing price of 548 yuan on that day. This is just like in the currency circle. When we buy a contract for a certain currency, we must accurately calculate the cost, which is related to our profit margin.
How to complete the substitution in practice? This requires a certain stock analysis ability. Before March 27, you need to choose an opportunity to close the March option contract 10006676, and then choose an opportunity to buy the April option contract 10006939. The "opportunity" here requires trading experience. Just like doing contract trading in the currency circle, we cannot place orders at will, but must find the right time according to market conditions and our own analysis. Every investor has his own stock technical analysis method, but remember that the essence of option trading is the expectation of the future trend of the underlying asset. Any transaction in the currency circle requires in-depth analysis of the fundamentals and technical aspects of the underlying asset to make reasonable decisions.