With Bitcoin poised to hit $100,000, which phase of the bull market is the market currently in? In this regard, this article will analyze historical data to determine whether the current bull market has passed the peak period or is still in the early stages of the bull market. (Preliminary summary: The trap for investment novices: It is difficult to leave the bull market, but maintaining profits is the best way) (Background supplement: Under the appearance of the bull market, the hype pattern has changed: entertainment value determines the future trend) Since the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, Bitcoin The price of the currency has been soaring, and it is just shy of the 100,000 mark. However, so far in the development of this bull market, only Bitcoin has risen alone, and the proportion of Bitcoin in the total market value of the crypto market has been rising. Will the copycat season come again? Or is it that 100,000 Bitcoins are already the peak of the bull market? We compared data from the past four years to answer this question. Basic situation description Data sources The data involved in this article include ①Bitcoin price, ②Bitcoin contract rate, ③Bitcoin contract transaction volume, ④Bitcoin contract active buying transaction volume, ⑤The total market value of stable coins, ⑥The total market value of the crypto market, ⑦The total market value of Bitcoin, ⑧Nasdaq trading volume and other data. The contract price in ① is from Binance, and the spot price is from CoinGecko; ②-④The data is from Binance contracts; ⑤, ⑥, ⑦ are from CoinGecko and DefiLlama; ⑧ From Yahoo Finance. Key Points of the Chart This article aims to "qualitatively" explore the market development stage rather than perform quantitative analysis. Therefore, in order to improve the readability of the chart, the charts involved in this article are drawn using Origin, and except for the data of "stablecoin market value", all data have been Smoothing operation (the parameters are Savitzky-Golay smoothing, window size 30, 2nd order fitting, high smoothness, readers are recommended to only pay attention to trend changes, and the numbers that need separate attention will be pointed out directly in the text). Looking back, what data heralded the arrival of the pinnacle? Funding rate Funding rate is undoubtedly one of the most familiar and intuitive information to the public. We first reviewed the first wave of the bull market from January to May 2021. The relationship between the Bitcoin funding rate and the Bitcoin price is as shown in the figure below: A very significant rule can be obtained from this, the peak price and the extreme rate coexist. , and the extreme value of the fee rate often appears before the price peak.The three extreme values ​​of the rate appeared in early January, mid-to-early February, and mid-April respectively, corresponding to prices of 40,000, 45,000, and 60,000 US dollars respectively. But at the same time, it should be noted that high interest rates do not mean an absolute top. On the contrary, higher interest rates are more obvious in the early stages of a bull market. The Bitcoin rate and trend from the end of 2023 to April 24 is shown in the figure below: It can be seen that the market around 24 years has been significantly "calmer". Although Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, the rate has not exceeded 0.1 again. % mark (the maximum value occurred on March 5, the price was 66839 USDT). But again, we're seeing rates hit peaks before prices hit peaks. Active buying transaction amount Here we select the active buying transaction amount of the Bitcoin contract in Binance as the research object, and similarly select January – May 2021 as the research object. It is also obvious that this indicator is a "reverse indicator" or "lagging indicator". The peak value of active buying turnover is often later than the peak of the price. At the same time, the active buying turnover rises faster when the peak falls, indicating that users in 21 years prefer to actively buy the bottom when the price falls. The data from the end of 2023 to April 24 is as follows. What is more magical is that this indicator has become a "positive indicator" again. The active buying volume appears at the same time or slightly earlier than the price peak, and the volatility is larger and more significant. , is expected to become an effective reference indicator. Stablecoin circulation market value 21-year bull market The US Federal Reserve’s unlimited QE, and the influx of hot money from outside the circle drove Tether to madly increase the issuance of USDT, accelerating the bull market process. We first reviewed the total market value of USDT and the total market value of cryptocurrencies from 21 to 23 years as follows: It can be seen that stablecoins have no correlation with the trend at a small level, and it is necessary to zoom in to the annual level to show a little correlation. Extended reading: Bitcoin Hot Money Boom) Binance’s monthly trading volume reached 2 times that of the New York Stock Exchange, stablecoin inflows reached a new high, and Tether’s market value surpassed Citi’s Bitcoin price and altcoin season. Bitcoin price, Bitcoin market value, total altcoin market in the past 4.5 years The market capitalization and market capitalization ratio are shown in the figure below: Looking at 2020 and 2021 alone, when the first wave of Bitcoin started, the market share of copycats dropped sharply, and then quietly turned around in early 21. The more Bitcoin rose, the higher the proportion of copycats. . Back to the present, Bitcoin has already completed the first wave and the second wave, but the decline in the share of altcoins is not rapid, and there are no obvious signs of bottoming or rebounding. It is difficult to predict the trend, but in terms of absolute values, the two key shareholdings of the last bull market were 30% at the bottom in early January 21, and 40% in mid-February 21. The current value is 46%, which is far from The nearest starting point is not far away. Market Activity Last week, on-chain analyst @ai_ 9684 xtpa posted on the 2024.10.07 – 11.15), Binance’s trading volume is 10% higher than Nasdaq, 2 times that of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 16 times that of Coinbase, accounting for approximately 50% of the global centralized exchange trading volume . First ask if it is, and then ask what - has the market transaction volume reached a historical peak? We found through data review that on November 12, the Bitcoin contract transaction volume hit the fourth highest record in four years (top three) (occurred on March 5, August 5, and February 28, 2024), and the fifth highest point was May 19, 2021. So does the peak transaction volume mean the top of the market? As shown in the figure below: It can be seen that there are only three peaks exceeding US$30 billion, and the first two occurred near the peak. In summary, what is the rate, active buying volume, and total trading volume? The leading indicator of the market, the total turnover, has issued an early warning, so what stage are the other two indicators at now? Among them, the rate is as shown below. It can be seen that the rate is still at a low point, far less than in March this year, not to mention The crazy stage of 21 years. The active buying volume is shown in the figure below. This indicator also hit a record high on November 21 (Related reports) The "top signal" of this bull market has expired, and the new main force has not yet arrived. Come) The next 8 major trends worth paying attention to in the DeFi field. Attention is everything, the unique story of this bull market and Generation Z are the key. "Looking back at the encryption market over the past 4 years, which stage of the bull market are we in?"This article was first published in BlockTempo (Dong District Dongzhu - the most influential blockchain news media).

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