Currently, old altcoins on the market are roughly divided into two categories:
Once popular, but now quiet. For example, LTC (Litecoin), Doge (Dogecoin) are names familiar to old players and may occasionally bounce back.
Completely forgotten small coins that were once hyped but are now hardly mentioned. Many new players may not have even heard of them.
The biggest characteristic of old altcoins is: they resist surges but also resist drops. When Bitcoin surges, they might follow with a small rise; when Bitcoin drops, they also drop slowly. This leads to less severe fluctuations in their market, but once capital enters the market, they can easily experience rapid rises and falls.
The most important thing to look at for altcoins is the trend line, especially in areas of long-term consolidation. If an old altcoin has been consolidating at a low level for a long time, but the trading volume is gradually increasing, be cautious; it likely means the institutional investors are quietly accumulating.
My experience:
• Breakthrough of long-term moving averages (like the 120-day moving average): This is a signal that capital might be slowly flowing in.
• Increased volume after a breakout: Usually indicates that a wave of market activity is about to start.
• Break below important support levels: Quickly stop loss and don’t cling to the trade.
Trading volume: Increased volume at low levels is key. Many old altcoins have been stagnant for a long time, but suddenly one day the trading volume surges; this is when special attention is needed. Usually, this means the institutional investor is preparing to drive the price up, or it is about to be speculated heavily.
Big players suggest:
• If you see a volume breakout above previous highs, decisively enter the market.
• If there is just increased volume but no price movement, don’t rush; patiently wait for a breakout signal.
MACD and RSI: Confirm buy and sell points.
Among technical indicators, MACD and RSI are the most commonly used. In simple terms:
• MACD golden cross (slow line crossing above fast line): Buy signal.
• MACD death cross (fast line crossing below slow line): Sell signal.
• RSI too high (above 70): Overbought, be cautious about chasing highs.
• RSI too low (below 30): Oversold, may indicate a rebound.
The fundamentals of old altcoins: What to pay attention to? Whether old altcoins can survive depends on whether there are new developments behind the projects, such as upgrades, revisions, or new partnerships. If it’s just stagnant, it’s basically finished. However, if there are some new technological upgrades, like the halving of LTC or new protocols launching, this could bring about a wave of market activity.
The activity level of the team and community: No matter how old the coin, if the team is still maintaining it and the community is still discussing, it indicates there is still hope. But if the team has disbanded and the community is lifeless, then it is a buried coin; it’s best to give up early.
When to enter the market? Enter when there is low-level consolidation and increased trading volume; this is the safest opportunity, don’t chase highs. Especially after long-term low-level consolidation, once the trading volume increases, it’s a signal that the institutional investors are accumulating.
Secret:
• Check whether the long-term moving averages (120-day or 200-day) have been breached.
• Observe whether there are consecutive days of increasing volume.
Enter the market during favorable policies or extreme market sentiment, for instance, when Bitcoin surges or favorable policies are announced, old altcoins are usually driven by capital. At this time, you should enter and exit quickly, don’t cling to the trade; just seize the rebound.
Pitfalls to watch out for: Don't step into them, poor liquidity: Many old altcoins have no trading volume, and it becomes troublesome if you can't sell them. Institutional investors cutting retail investors: Old coin operators have control over many coins, don’t be fooled by short-term surges. Noise from news: Don't easily trust rumors; rely on your own judgment.
Although old altcoins present many opportunities, they also carry significant risks. As someone who has been in the crypto space for many years, I can only tell you that if you want to make money, you need to understand the trends, hold your position at low levels, and take profits when they are good. Don’t think about getting rich overnight; being able to steadily make some money is already better than most people.
The crypto space is deep; may you keep up with the big players' mentality and successfully find gold in this sea.