Daily sharing
Many people are asking, what stage are we currently in the bull market?
If we divide according to the weekly structure, I personally believe that we are now in the second half of the bull market, specifically in the early stage of the second half of the bull market.
The first half of the bull market is from December 2022 to March 2024. This phase is actually a transition from rebound to reversal and is also a phase of extreme uncertainty. It is very normal for everyone to be filled with doubts and confusion about the start time of the new round of the bull market. It wasn't until the beginning of this year when it surged past 50,000 that the market gradually reached a consensus, believing that it is now a new round of bull market.
From March 2024 to October 2024, overall it is a mid-game phase after the end of the first half of the bull market. Due to the continuous up-and-down fluctuations during this phase, especially with Bitcoin, the trend is close to a dispersive triangle state, leading to insufficient market confidence during this phase. Many who were previously firmly optimistic about Bitcoin reaching 100,000 or higher have become uncertain amid the significant market fluctuations, with many bulls turning to bearish views. The altcoin market has plummeted, with continuous fluctuations leading to a significant blow to retail investor confidence. Everyone is beginning to doubt whether the bull market has ended, and the market is filled with a new wave of doubt and confusion.
After the mid-game phase is completed, actually from November 2024, Bitcoin's breakthrough of 73,777 marks the beginning of the second half of the bull market. The main representative of this phase is Bitcoin's continuous crazy rise after breaking through 73,777, reaching around 100,000 without much pause. Ethereum's rebound after the decline successfully turned into a reversal after the decline, and the altcoins generally increased by 1 to 3 times from the bottom. These phenomena basically indicate that the second half of the bull market has begun.
Making money in the second half of the bull market will be easier because once the market reaches a certain height, the consensus of the bull market will further strengthen, and the bullish sentiment in the market will become more solid. In this situation, all market forces will converge, and everyone will work together, making explosive growth much easier. Therefore, in this phase, one should prepare more funds to take bold actions; whether the market can make money in the next few years depends on this wave.
The reason for saying that we are now in the early stage of the second half of the bull market is mainly that the market has just started to show some improvement, and it has not yet reached a stage where there is a unanimous bullish view. There are still many people who are cautious about the current market; when everyone is no longer worried about a significant correction and is not afraid of heights, the market will slowly transition into the mid or later stages of the second half of the bull market.
BTC medium to long term
Weekly level:
Weekly level, currently in the third upward movement of the weekly level. How long this weekly upward movement can last is still uncertain, initially looking towards mid-2025. As for whether it can extend for a longer time, we will discuss that later. The overall target is to focus on the range of 150,000 to 200,000; of course, this target is merely a preliminary estimate, and no one knows where the final upward movement will reach.
Daily level:
Daily level, currently running the first upward movement of the daily level within the weekly upward trend. This upward movement has not yet ended, and the expectation is to further break through 100,000, reaching around 120,000. This daily upward movement still requires at least one 4-hour upward move, expected to occur by the end of December or early January, after which there will be a daily level correction. There is a gap in the range of 78,000 to 80,000, and it is uncertain whether the next daily correction will provide this opportunity.
As long as the daily level correction is completed without falling below 73,000, the overall upward trend will not waver, and there will be another daily upward movement to higher positions, such as the range of 150,000 to 200,000. As for whether a daily central area will be constructed afterwards, we will discuss that later.
Based on the current height, after Bitcoin stands above 100,000, will the altcoin market go wild?
4H:
4-hour level, it is expected here to be a 4-hour level correction, but it is actually just a shallow correction, so there is no need to overly worry about the market declining. In the next few days, if Bitcoin can fluctuate back to around 90,000, it should be pretty much enough. There will subsequently be a new 4-hour level upward movement, with the next target near 116,000 to 120,000.
Of course, there is another possibility, which is that Bitcoin has created a new high here, breaking through 99,588, indicating that the 4-hour correction has not yet begun. But there's no need to worry; even if it pushes to a new high in the short term, it will still need to undergo a 4-hour level correction afterwards.
BTC short term
In the short term, due to rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market, and this should only serve as a reference.
1H:
1-level, as long as this 1-hour level rebound does not break through 99,500 again, this is still in the process of a 4-hour level correction. Currently, we are looking to see if it can push up to the range of 98,000 to 99,000. It is expected that a 1-hour level correction may occur in the next couple of days, with attention on around 93,000. After that, it may consolidate into a 1-hour level central area before pulling back to the range of 91,000 to 90,000.
Of course, if it breaks through 99,500 again, it would mean that the 4-hour level correction has not yet started and is still an extension of the previous rebound. But it won't go much further up; there will still be a 4-hour correction. Therefore, this current stage can actually be understood as an adjustment phase in the upward continuation, and the correction phase is an opportunity.
15M:
15-minute level, the upward movement at the 1-hour level has finally emerged here, let's see if it can go up further in the short term. Ideally, it would push up to 98,000. If it falls below 96,200 at the 15-minute level again, it would be considered that the 1-hour rebound has ended and a 1-hour level correction is about to begin.
ETH
15-minute level, currently experiencing continuous fluctuations. Under normal circumstances, Ethereum should make a push to 3,700, but it has yet to do so. So we need to observe this; if it falls below 3,440 again, it leans towards a 1-hour level correction for Ethereum, and if it drops below 3,350, a 4-hour level correction should follow. Overall, Ethereum is still in an upward movement that started from 2,100 at the daily level, with an expected target of around 4,000, or slightly breaking above 4,200. The weekly upward movement of Ethereum will break through 4,800 to create a new historical high.
Trend direction
Weekly level: Direction upwards, currently in a new upward movement at the weekly level, with an overall target looking above 150,000.
Daily level: Direction upwards, the daily level upward movement is expected to reach around 120,000.
4-hour level: Direction downwards, as long as it does not break through 99,500, it should still be a 4-hour level correction.
1-hour level: Direction downwards, after the 1-hour level rebound ends, the price will again fluctuate downwards to complete a 4-hour level correction.
15-minute level: Direction downwards, the 1-hour rebound is almost over; if it falls below 96,200 again, it would indicate a new 1-hour level correction is in progress.
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The article is time-sensitive; please pay attention to risks. The views expressed in the article are personal suggestions and for reference only!
