Many friends have asked me why I haven't been looking at on-chain data recently. This is because the data doesn't hold much significance for everyone right now. Whether it's buying the dip or selling the top, it's not something that can be changed by data alone. When emotions dominate the market, the role of data can only serve as assistance; what truly matters is understanding market expectations.
For instance, the most important event coming up is the Microsoft vote on December 11. Before the vote, Michael will present the advantages of purchasing #BTC at Microsoft's board meeting. The reactions from this won't be reflected in the current data or estimations. For example, I see that data has reached historical highs, and many indicators are suggesting that we are at the top. If I tell you to run, would you?
Next, there is the power transfer on January 20, which will also be events that can change emotions. Before these events, the role of data is too weak, just like the previous U.S. elections. The outcomes of Trump and Harris coming to power would undoubtedly be different, and the results of a unified Republican government versus a bipartisan struggle would also differ.
It's not that data is unimportant right now, but in a market still chasing emotions, the data may only reflect lagging content. Of course, data can still hold a lot of reference significance; for example, I have been closely monitoring capital data, which indicates that more investors are entering the market. I've also been watching the #Bitcoin supply on exchanges, which continues to decrease, suggesting that buying sentiment among investors remains high. Moreover, the competition between high-net-worth investors and small-scale investors informs us that an increasing amount of BTC is moving towards the wealthiest segment.
These are the fundamental pieces of information for our investments, but for now, they haven't significantly affected market trends. The first key data point should be the vote on December 11. If it doesn't pass, we can observe investor reactions through the data up until January 20. This is an opportunity for short-term investors to make moves, but for long-term investors, holding is sufficient.
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