On Friday (November 29), the US dollar index fell back to 105.92, with liquidity thinning due to the Thanksgiving and Black Friday holidays. Gold rebounded to $2,646, supported by risk aversion in Russia and Ukraine, with Russian President Vladimir Putin threatening to use a new hypersonic missile to attack Ukraine. Bitcoin shook off the overnight slump and rebounded sharply above $95,600. Trump's new cabinet formed a national cryptocurrency team, with more than five senior executives being veteran Bitcoin players.
Trump's "new cabinet" forms a national crypto team, at least 5 of whom are senior Bitcoin players
All of Trump's nominations for his new cabinet have been announced. These nominations still need to be approved by the Senate, but generally the chances of the list being approved by the Senate are high, especially since the Republicans are now also the majority party in the Senate.
It is worth noting that, including Trump himself, there are many cryptocurrency supporters in the new cabinet and in the list of senior officials announced in the past few weeks, some of whom have disclosed holding cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Trump has declared holdings worth between $1 million and $5 million in Ethereum on-chain assets. In addition, Trump has earned more than $7.15 million from three non-fungible token (NFT) projects, including Mugshot and two Donald Trump Trading Cards series.
In his financial disclosure report submitted to the U.S. Senate in 2022, Vice President-elect JD Vance disclosed that he held Bitcoin in his Coinbase account, worth between $100,000 and $250,000.
Scott Bessent, the nominated Treasury Secretary, supports Trump's proposal to establish a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin while reducing regulation of digital assets. However, Scott Bessent has not yet publicly disclosed whether he holds cryptocurrencies. He emphasized: "I am excited about Trump's embrace of cryptocurrencies because it is highly consistent with the spirit of the Republican Party. Cryptocurrencies symbolize freedom, and the existence of the crypto economy will be long-lasting and inevitable."
The nominated Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is the CEO of Wall Street bond trading giant Cantor Fitzgerald, which acquired a 5% stake in Tether in 2023. Cantor is also rumored to be planning to cooperate with USDT stablecoin issuer Tether to launch a Bitcoin mortgage loan service with an initial funding scale of US$2 billion, which is expected to expand to tens of billions of dollars.
Congressman Mike Waltz, who was nominated as White House National Security Advisor, disclosed in 2023 that he held Bitcoin.
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who was nominated as Director of National Intelligence, also disclosed her holdings of Ethereum and Litecoin as early as 2017.
Other high-level figures include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nominated Secretary of Health, and billionaire Elon Musk, who leads the Department of U.S. Government Efficiency (DOGE), and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are all supporters of cryptocurrencies.
Putin threatens Ukraine with 'new hypersonic missiles'
Well-known financial blog ZeroHedge reported that Putin announced to security officials at the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Kazakhstan that Russia had launched 100 drones and 90 missiles into Ukraine in the past 48 hours in "response to an attack deep inside Russian territory."
They included strikes using long-range missiles supplied by the United States and Britain, which Russia acknowledged caused some casualties and damaged a radar station in Kursk.
"We carried out a full-scale strike. This was in response to the continuous attacks on our territory by ATACMS missiles supplied by the United States," Putin said on Thursday.
He further warned that the Russian military was actively monitoring the locations of Ukrainian long-range weapons to determine "where they are" and issued a new warning about the new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile.
He warned that if Ukraine continued to attack Russian territory, more Oreshnik missiles would need to be deployed. More importantly, he said, the advanced and undefendable weapons would be targeted at Kiev's "decision-making centers."
The Russian leader boasted that the Oreshnik missile could "turn its target into dust" and that multiple launches of the hypersonic weapon would have the effect of "being comparable to a nuclear strike." He described the missile as being able to reach speeds of "about 3 kilometers per second" and releasing temperatures and energy upon impact that were "equivalent to the surface of the sun."
In response to the recent attacks on Ukraine, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko admitted that the power infrastructure was "subjected to a massive attack by the enemy," which meant that Ukraine implemented emergency power outages and energy-saving measures amid severe cold weather.
US Thanksgiving trading is sluggish, and the dollar is supported by the "hawkish" PCE
The US Thanksgiving and Black Friday holidays have led to thin liquidity and low trading activity. With only two trading days left this week, market movements are expected to be flat. This week, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November indicated that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious and is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.
Strong economic growth, resilient household spending and strong consumer confidence support the Fed's cautious easing cycle. October's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) highlighted persistent inflation and the need for caution, which could prompt the Fed to consider fewer rate cuts. At the same time, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December remains high, but has weakened.
US Dollar Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín said that although profit-taking and global uncertainty have temporarily set back the US dollar index, the uptrend remains intact. Technical indicators including the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) show that the US dollar index is consolidating and struggling to gain support.
However, the US Dollar Index remains supported by the 106.00-106.50 area, which has proved resilient and prevented further declines. On the upside, the key resistance level is 107.00.
Gold Technical Analysis
Bruce Powers, an analyst at FXEmpire, said that gold encountered resistance near the 20-day moving average, with a daily high of $2,650. Previously, the price of gold fell to a low of $2,621. This is the second consecutive day that the price of gold has moved down from the 20-day moving average. Since the current closing of lower daily lows and lower highs is likely, the price of gold may continue to move lower. Note that Thursday's low triggered a one-day bearish reversal of Wednesday's bearish shooting star candlestick pattern.
A long red bearish engulfing pattern reflecting aggressive selling completed on Monday. Once there is one day of aggressive selling, there is a chance of a second or third day. Last week's high of $2,721 (C) established a lower swing low. Since this is halfway through the downtrend definition, it increases the chances of a deeper correction.
There has been little to reverse this view over the past three days. Resistance has been seen at either the lower trend channel line or the 20-day EMA over the past three days. This is bearish behavior as it comes after the second breakout of the ascending parallel trend channel that was triggered on Monday. Note that a sustained rally above Wednesday's high of $2,658 could change the short-term bearish outlook.
A break below Thursday's low of $2,621 or a further drop below this week's low of $2,605 would signal a bearish signal. The $2,605 level is key as a break below it would trigger a continuation of the bear trend from Monday's high. This is part of the second leg (CD) of a falling ABCD pattern (purple). Previous support around $2,600 could give way to lower prices.
The previous swing low of $2537 (B) will be the next lower price target area. However, the continuation of the ABCD pattern, which seems likely, suggests that there may be support around $2470. This is part of the confluence zone of $2484 to $2470. Several indicators are pointing to the same relatively narrow price range, which includes potential support from the ascending trendline and the descending channel line.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CoinTelegraph noted that Bitcoin's largest monthly options will expire in 2024, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. This event provides bulls with a key opportunity to drive Bitcoin prices higher, so it is critical to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options expiring on November 29.
The S&P 500 has struggled to stay above 6,000 for the past three weeks, indicating growing investor caution. This shift in sentiment is reflected in the yield on the five-year U.S. Treasury note, which has fallen from 4.35% on November 15 to 4.12% currently.
Investors are increasingly valuing the relative safety of government bonds, even if the yields are lower.
Periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, often sparked by concerns about an economic slowdown, typically trigger a flight to safety, prompting investors to exit riskier assets.
Still, Bitcoin’s 5% rebound from its Nov. 26 low of $90,775 suggests confidence remains strong amid a 34% gain over the past 30 days.
According to Yahoo Finance, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a research report on Wednesday that if Trump implements import tariffs, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rate may rise to more than 3%. In addition, Barclays analysts also pointed out: "Temporary and uncertain tariffs of this nature will naturally prompt investment to be postponed."
From a broader perspective, the total notional value of Bitcoin call (buy) options on Deribit, CME, OKX, Binance and Bybit on Friday was $7.4 billion, 19% higher than the $6.2 billion open interest in put (sell) options. This gap is smaller than the typical trend because cryptocurrency traders generally tend to be bullish.
Notably, only 20% of the call options have a strike price equal to or greater than $100,000, equating to a notional value of $4.25 billion for the November expiration.
By contrast, less than 2% of put options have a target price of $100,000 or more, effectively rendering most of them worthless and reducing their notional value to about $80 million.
Below are the four most likely scenarios for Deribit based on the current price trend. The availability of call and put options expiring on Thursday will depend on the Bitcoin settlement price.
This analysis assumes that call options are used primarily for bullish positions, while put options reflect neutral to bearish strategies. However, it is important to note that this is a simplified approach and does not take into account more advanced or complex trading strategies.
Between $86,000 and $90,000: The net result favors call (buy) options by $1.65 billion.
Between $90,000 and $94,000: The net result favors call (buy) options by $2.6 billion.
Between $94,000 and $98,000: The net result favors call (buy) options by $3.55 billion.
Between $98,000 and $102,000: The net result favors call (buy) options at $4.58 billion.
As a result, bears are under tremendous pressure to push Bitcoin prices below $90,000 before the November options expiration to prevent bullish options from taking advantage.
However, Bitcoin’s resilience amid inflation fears suggests that prices could reach $100,000 or more soon after these Bitcoin options expire.
