After Bitcoin failed to break through the $100,000 mark last week, it is currently hovering around $96,000. ARK Invest, headed by "female stock god" Cathie Wood, analyzed that this wave of pullback is just "accumulating strength before a big rise", and Bitcoin is preparing to hit a new high again.

After Bitcoin failed in its attempt to hit the "$100,000 mark" last week, it is currently hovering around $96,000. ARK Invest, headed by "female stock god" Cathie Wood, pointed out that this wave of pullback is just "accumulating strength before a big rise" and Bitcoin is preparing to hit a new high again.

ARK Invest researcher David Puell said in an interview with CoinDesk:

We estimate that Bitcoin is expected to reach the price range of "US$104,000 to US$124,000" by the end of this year. Of course, this is not an investment advice, but so far, the price trend of Bitcoin has basically met our expectations.

David Puell’s analysis is based on on-chain data indicators and Bitcoin’s “cyclical characteristics,” which is how Bitcoin has performed in previous bull markets. He predicts that Bitcoin will continue to rise to new highs, forming highs, and then may experience a sharp correction like in 2022. He pointed out:

The current market environment should be considered as the "mid-stage of a bull market". If we look at the path from the "lowest point to the highest point", I believe that the bull market process has probably gone through 55% to 65%.

Based on on-chain data, this means that Bitcoin’s cycle highs could fall between “$126,000 and $134,000.” However, David Puell added that if the market accelerates further, these target prices still have room for upward revisions.

This also echoes the market's view that "Bitcoin's gains in each bull market are gradually decreasing." Assuming that Bitcoin's peak in this bull market is $134,000, this price is only double the historical high in 2021 ($69,000), while Bitcoin achieved a three-fold increase in the previous cycle (2017 to 2021).

David Puell said ARK Invest is prepared for the possibility of this "diminishing gains," but the data is still inconclusive.

In fact, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood boldly predicted at the beginning of the year that by 2030, Bitcoin could soar to between $1 million and $1.5 million, with a basic target price of $650,000.

David Puell added that how high Bitcoin can go depends to a certain extent on the incoming Trump administration, such as the selection of the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the attitude of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on monetary policy, and whether it supports risky assets. These are all key factors affecting the trend of Bitcoin.

In addition, he also specifically mentioned that the "Bitcoin strategic reserve" is still a major variable. If it can be implemented in the end, it will not only be icing on the cake, but also "add another layer of cake."

However, Bitcoin cannot continue to rise forever. David Puell reminds us that due to the influence of market cycles and seasonal laws, Bitcoin will inevitably reach its peak and fall into a bear market again. It may even plummet 70% from its historical high. As for whether Bitcoin can establish a solid bottom, it will also depend on how high the high point of this bull market can go.