The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with talk of a delayed start to the altcoin season. While Bitcoin has surged due to institutional interest and demand for spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds), the altcoin market remains relatively quiet.
Analysts and industry experts are analyzing the factors behind this phenomenon, revealing a technical interplay of capital flows, investor behavior and market events.
Mixed opinions on delayed altcoin season
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, argues that the current Bitcoin (BTC) rally differs significantly from previous cycles. In a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), he explained that the nature of capital flowing into Bitcoin has changed. Institutional investors and spot ETFs are now driving Bitcoin’s growth, rather than retail traders on crypto exchanges.
These institutional investors and ETF buyers have no intention of rotating their assets from Bitcoin to altcoins, Ki Young Ju said.
He emphasized that these players operate outside of crypto exchanges, making asset rotation less feasible. Additionally, smaller altcoins rely heavily on exchange users for liquidity, which has been in short supply this cycle.
CryptoQuant CEO suggested that new capital must flow into crypto exchanges for altcoins to reach new all-time highs — a trend that is not yet evident. While institutional funds can venture into major altcoins, smaller ones remain dependent on retail traders.
Ki Young Ju concluded that altcoins need independent strategies to attract new capital, rather than relying on Bitcoin’s momentum. Despite this cautious outlook, he remains optimistic.
Altseason will come, but it will be selective. Not every altcoin will reach its previous ATH, he added.
Not everyone agrees with the CryptoQuant CEO’s analysis. CryptoVizArt, a senior analyst and researcher at Glassnode, believes that altseason has already begun. He highlighted Solana’s explosive growth in active addresses, which now total 18.6 million per day — nearly 40 times that of Ethereum.
Retail has already chosen where to bet in this cycle, noted CryptoVizArt.
Altseason tryouts divide analysts and reveal trends
The researcher pointed to the popularity of memecoins and Solana-based projects as evidence of an ongoing altseason. However, Ki Young Ju partially aligned with this view.
Altseason has begun for some major altcoins but not others, the CryptoQuant executive noted.
Other analysts, such as Crypto Feras, take a more historical perspective. In his view, altseason traditionally occurs in the later stages of the Bitcoin cycle.
In 2020, altcoins were crushed during Bitcoin's glorious run in the second half of the year, only to recover afterwards, Feras said.
They argue that the large number of altcoins today dilutes capital inflows, making the current cycle’s altseason less impactful than previous ones.
The Psychology of Market Cycles
XForceGlobal, another prominent member of the community, offered a detailed critique of Ki Young Ju's argument, highlighting the role of psychology and dominance metrics in understanding market behavior.
It’s impossible to measure the allocation of institutions versus exchange users. The market operates as a self-fulfilling prophecy, they said.
They pointed out that altseason often lags behind Bitcoin's rally, with confidence in Bitcoin often translating into altcoin growth.
Altcoins will always lag behind, but once the money flow aligns, an altseason is inevitable, XForceGlobal concluded.
Adding to the discussion, indicators such as the Ethereum-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio hitting all-time lows suggest a potential shift in the market. Similarly, BeInCrypto also reported on altcoins poised for growth, supported by rising sentiment and key technical indicators.
However, the total market cap of altcoins remains below its all-time high, echoing Ki Young Ju’s concern about the lack of new liquidity from exchange users.
Total market cap of altcoins. Source: TradingView
Altcoins set to innovate in Bitcoin-dominated market
The consensus among analysts is that altcoin season is coming, but its scale and scope remain uncertain. Institutional interest in Bitcoin has reshaped the market, reducing direct spillover into altcoins. Retail participation, which was essential for smaller altcoins, has shifted focus to niche sectors like memecoins and Solana.
In fact, altcoins must innovate to attract new capital independently. Whether through unique use cases, partnerships, or technological advancements, the path forward requires more than relying on Bitcoin’s momentum.
As Ki Young Ju summarized, “Bitcoin’s future growth is tied to ETFs, institutions, and governments — not retail traders. Altcoins must adapt to this new reality to thrive.”
CryptoQuant CEO explains altseason delay; check it out article was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
