I recommend that investors can participate in its ETF market for cash speculation, with relatively smaller fluctuations, taking up a smaller proportion of the overall investment portfolio.
Author: Executive Director of Hong Kong New Port Fund Management, Shi Lisheng
Source: Hong Kong Commercial Daily
This year, Bitcoin set historic records: (1) In November, it reached a historic high of 99,617 USD; (2) In November, the low was 66,834 USD, and the highest was 99,617 USD, with an increase of 32,783 points (49%), marking the largest monthly increase since its inception; (3) In February this year, Bitcoin rose from a low of 41,890 USD to 63,915 USD, an increase of 22,025 points (53%), the largest monthly increase this year; (4) In May 2021, Bitcoin fell from a high of 59,523 USD to 30,261 USD, a decrease of 29,262 points (49%), currently the largest monthly drop in history.
Overall, Bitcoin futures or spot is an extremely high-risk speculative market, with fluctuations of about 50% in a month, trading almost 24 hours a day, making it a typical slaughter market. Large players can eat both small and large, making it suitable only for speculators with rich experience. I suggest that investors can participate in its ETF market for cash speculation with relatively smaller fluctuations, taking up a smaller proportion of the overall investment portfolio. It is expected that Bitcoin, after a surge, is now entering a consolidation phase, with spot resistance at 99,617/95,000 USD and support at 85,000/75,000/73,500 USD.
19,000 points on the Hang Seng Index is the short-term boundary between bullish and bearish
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index has been on a downward trend for the past two weeks, falling from a high of 21,355 points on November 8. Market sentiment has been negatively affected; in addition, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, two major foreign investment banks, recently published reports that were bearish on Hong Kong stocks, downgrading the ratings of Chinese stocks and Hong Kong shares to 'underweight'. These recommendations further intensified the selling pressure on Hong Kong stocks, leading to extremely pessimistic market sentiment. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index dipped to 19,054 points, and some analysts began predicting that the 19,000-point level would be breached. On Wednesday, driven by the strengthening Renminbi and the rebound of the domestic stock market, Hong Kong stocks significantly rebounded before the Hang Seng Index futures settlement on Thursday, peaking at 19,660 points, closing at 19,603 points, up 443 points (2.31%), with main board trading reaching 138.9 billion HKD.
Recently, Trump took the lead in the trade war by firing the 'first shot', announcing that after taking office, he would impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which is lower than the 60% predicted during his campaign. I believe this is good news, eliminating Trump's negative impact. Additionally, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has fallen, which will benefit the appreciation of the Renminbi; the Hang Seng Index has some support around the 19,000 mark, and next week enters the year-end positive effects of the Christmas month. The ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and Hezbollah has eased the tense political situation, oil prices have fallen, and the performance of the U.S. stock market has also shaken off the short-term bearish trend, reversing back to stability. Given the above positive news, I predict that the market will enter an upward rebound in the short term, with 19,000 points being the short-term boundary between bullish and bearish. If it breaks through, it could change the market's bearish sentiment, helping investors regain confidence and increasing the likelihood of further gains in Hong Kong stocks.
