Whether Bitcoin can break through the $150,000 or even $200,000 mark in the coming months will depend on how much new capital flows in, especially the performance of the iconic MSTR (MicroStrategy) in the U.S. stock market.
The following key dates should be closely monitored!
1. December 15, 2024: Crypto accounting rules take effect
• Impact: The new rules allow crypto assets to be included on the balance sheet at market value, which will improve MSTR's financial performance and meet profit requirements. The market may price in this favorable news in advance, driving MSTR up.
• Relation to BTC: As one of the largest corporate holders of BTC, MSTR's profit performance is highly correlated with BTC prices. If BTC prices continue to rise, this new rule will further amplify MSTR's performance improvement.
2. December 20, 2024: S&P 500 index adjustment window
• Impact: If MSTR is included in the S&P 500, it will attract a large amount of passive investment capital, providing strong support and momentum for its stock price.
• Relation to BTC: If MSTR's stock price rises, it may indirectly enhance the market's recognition of BTC, attracting more institutional interest in BTC as part of asset allocation.
3. December 23, 2024: Official listing and trading upon approval
• Impact: If MSTR is included in the index, more capital inflow may occur, and the stock price could rise further.
• Relation to BTC: A rise in MSTR's stock price or its inclusion in the index may strengthen market confidence in BTC as a corporate asset reserve tool, driving up BTC prices.
Short to mid-term impact analysis:
• Short-term: MSTR's profitability and its inclusion in the S&P 500 index are key factors affecting its stock price, which may also indirectly influence market sentiment towards BTC.
• Medium to long-term: With the implementation of crypto accounting rules and the continuous development of the BTC market, MSTR's performance may become a benchmark case for corporations adopting BTC. If BTC performs strongly during this period, MSTR will directly benefit and strengthen corporate recognition of crypto assets.