In the past decade, Bitcoin has had a 70% chance of dropping on Thanksgiving. Will it break the curse this time? (Background: Who is selling when Bitcoin drops to $90,000? Glassnode: $76,000 to $88,000 is the key level for short-term testing) (Additional context: Israel and Hezbollah have reached a ceasefire agreement! Gold and Bitcoin both fell, has the safe-haven market ended?) Today is November 28, 2024, which is Thanksgiving in the United States (the fourth Thursday of November each year), similar to the Chinese New Year's Eve reunion day. But did you know? Recently, many netizens have indicated that Bitcoin usually tends to drop on Thanksgiving, as Thanksgiving marks the arrival of the Christmas shopping season, and investors in Western countries like the United States may sell cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to take profits for celebrating the holiday. The following article will compile historical data from the past decade to see if this is really the case. The probability of Bitcoin dropping on Thanksgiving is as high as 70%. According to Coinglass data, over the past 10 years (2014 - 2023), Bitcoin has closed down 7 times out of 10 Thanksgivings, giving a drop probability of 70%, with only 2014, 2015, and 2021 not seeing a decline. Statistically, it indeed seems to lean towards a closing drop. The dates marked in blue on the chart represent the historical Thanksgivings. Chart source: Coinglass. The probability of closing up in November is 60%. However, in the past decade, Bitcoin only had significant drops on Thanksgiving in 2020, 2018, and 2017, with declines of 8.09%, 6.33%, and 3.07% respectively. During other times, although there were closing drops, the declines were mostly within 1%, which may also be related to Western investors closing their positions for the holidays. Additionally, in the past decade, the probability of closing up in November reached 60%, and so far, Bitcoin has increased by over 33% this month, ranking as the third highest increase in November over the past ten years. Bitcoin monthly return rate. Chart source: Coinglass. Related reports: Brazilian congressman proposes to include 'Bitcoin in national reserves': intends to invest $17.7 billion to stockpile BTC. Bitcoin villain Peter Schiff: Trump's support for BTC will only weaken the US economy, wasting billions in taxes. Bitcoin drops to $90,800, marking the largest decline since Trump was elected! Analysts: The market leverage is too heavy, but it is still a healthy correction. "Does Bitcoin really have a Thanksgiving curse? Statistics from the past decade suggest it might drop." This article was first published by BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

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