How far is Bitcoin's future? Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, gives an exciting prediction: by April 2028, the price of Bitcoin could reach $740,000. He believes Bitcoin is 'the first global currency since gold' and 'the first borderless payment system in history.' Having entered the Bitcoin market at $65, he firmly believes Bitcoin will continue to grow rapidly along its trend line.
Why is $740,000 within reach? - Key Data Interpretation
According to Morehead, Bitcoin's annualized compound growth rate has been close to 88% since 2011, with its price nearly doubling each year. If this trend continues, by 2028, if Bitcoin reaches $740,000, its market cap would hit $15 trillion, accounting for 3% of the total global financial assets (approximately $500 trillion). In his view, this figure 'is not surprising' but rather a natural result of the globalization of crypto assets.
Morehead's confidence comes not only from historical data but also from recent positive signals in the market:
Bullish Sentiment in the Options Market:
On-chain data shows that about 50% of Bitcoin options traders are betting that Bitcoin's price will reach six figures by the end of 2024. The probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 has recently increased from 34% to 45%, and the possibility of breaking $150,000 has also reached 4%. This indicates that the market is full of expectations for Bitcoin's future price performance.
Macroeconomic Trends Drive:
The correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 (broad money supply) shows that when M2 growth accelerates, the price of Bitcoin usually rises. This is because M2 growth often comes with increasing inflationary pressures, prompting investors to shift funds into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.
Blockchain Regulation Sets Sail:
Morehead emphasizes that since Trump's administration, the crypto industry has welcomed more clarity in regulation. He expects the U.S. Congress to gradually take a supportive stance towards blockchain, propelling the industry towards the mainstream.
Historical Bull Market Patterns: Parabolic Growth and Healthy Corrections
History shows that Bitcoin often undergoes several corrections during bull markets. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju points out that even in the strongest bull markets, Bitcoin's price can experience a 30% drop. He compares the current situation to the market cycle of 2021, believing that investors should be wary of excessive leverage but should not panic sell.
On the other hand, well-known analyst Joe Consorti warns that Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by M2 growth rates, and there is currently a possibility of short-term decline. He predicts that if global money supply slows, Bitcoin may correct to around $70,000.
From Trend to Reality: Can Bitcoin Become an Important Asset in the Global Economy?
If Bitcoin's price reaches $740,000, its market cap would surpass Meta, making it the sixth largest 'company' in the world. Morehead emphasizes that the integration of Bitcoin with traditional financial assets is accelerating, driven not only by institutional investors. With the proliferation of blockchain technology, decentralized payments and digital currencies are becoming part of the economic infrastructure.
Pantera's early investment performance further validates this trend. It is reported that the company acquired 2% of the global Bitcoin supply between 2013 and 2015. Since then, Pantera's investment returns have reached as high as 131,165%.
Looking Ahead to 2028: The Ultimate Imagination of a Bull Market
If Bitcoin can break $100,000 by the end of 2024, it will be an important stepping stone towards higher targets. With continued global monetary policy easing, increasing inflationary pressures, and the expansion of blockchain applications, reaching $740,000 in the future is not out of reach.
However, volatility remains Bitcoin's greatest uncertainty. Market analyst David Quintieri warns that Bitcoin's short-term price fluctuations may pose risks to investors, but from a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin, as a scarce asset, still possesses unparalleled growth potential.
In the next five years, Bitcoin's performance will determine its position in the global financial system. Will it become digital gold, or remain on the edge of being a speculative tool? Pay attention to trends and seize every correction opportunity. The bull market has just begun!
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