Well, crypto optimists, it seems it's time to refresh your faith in HODL. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders of Bitcoin have disposed of 728 thousand BTC in the last 30 days. Yes, you heard that right - this is the largest wave of sales since April. And if you still think the market is in a state of 'mature growth', it might be time to reconsider your beliefs.
Where does such generosity come from?
The situation in the market resembles someone pressing the 'dump everything' button. The reasons, as always, can be varied: from profit-taking after a rally to plain panic. And considering that such volumes are coming from long-term holders, one can assume that even the most patient are starting to lose faith.
Let's be honest: the current situation resembles not a healthy correction, but the beginning of a real capitulation. Who would have thought this would happen against the backdrop of talks about an impending rise to 100K?
What does this mean for the market?
Pressure on the price. When such volumes are dumped into the market, demand simply cannot keep up. This directly pressures the price, increasing the likelihood of further declines.
Emotional factor. A mass sell-off creates a domino effect: seeing such behavior from large holders, retail investors also start to panic and sell.
Risk of a deep plunge. With the current sales volumes, the price could easily drop to the 85K area, or even lower – to the very 78K that are already being discussed in analytical circles.
Why is this important?
Long-term holders are traditionally considered the 'anchor' of the market. They are supposed to maintain their positions in difficult times, providing stability. But if even they have started to sell off their holdings en masse, it is a worrying signal. The market is becoming increasingly vulnerable to panic and lack of liquidity.
Constructive criticism of optimism
Crypto enthusiasts love to repeat the mantra of Bitcoin's 'moon' growth, but let's face the facts. With such sales volumes, believing in a quick recovery becomes increasingly difficult. Instead, it makes sense to prepare for a prolonged correction and build a strategy at lower levels.
Panic or opportunity?
If you are still holding onto your coins, be prepared for turbulence. Those who have already sold probably feel calmer, but they too should consider where to re-enter the market. Meanwhile, as long-term holders liquidate their holdings, we can only watch as dreams of 100K turn into another lesson about cryptocurrency volatility.