On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market continued to pull back.
According to the data, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $95,000 mark in the early session, but then faced selling pressure. In the afternoon, although bulls attempted a rebound, they encountered strong selling pressure around $94,800, and the price briefly fell below $91,000.
As of the writing of this article, Bitcoin's trading price is about $91,646, down 2% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the altcoin market is performing even weaker, with over 90% of the tokens in the top 200 by market capitalization experiencing declines.
Currently, the overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is $3.14 trillion, with Bitcoin's market dominance at 57.3%.
In terms of U.S. stocks, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices all closed higher, rising by 0.57%, 0.28%, and 0.63%, respectively.
The reason for Bitcoin's decline may be related to the overheating of the leveraged market.
Currently, there is excessive leveraged trading in the market, and once fluctuations occur, these leveraged positions may be forcibly liquidated, leading to further price declines.
Data analysis platform IntoTheBlock also shares a similar view, believing that Bitcoin's pullback is related to the rise in funding rates, leading to bearish market sentiment. However, as funding rates normalize, the situation of leveraged liquidations may ease.
Cryptocurrency futures market analyst Byzantine General pointed out that, based on trading volume, Bitcoin's price trend is currently very similar to previous local tops. He believes that Bitcoin may enter a period of sideways consolidation. However, during this time, other cryptocurrencies may perform relatively better.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may retest the psychological barrier and liquidity area around $90,000, and may even fall further to around $85,000.
This is because Bitcoin's rise between November 6 and November 22 was very rapid, with no obvious imbalance between buying and selling during that period. Typically, after a rapid rise, the market will undergo a pullback to rebalance supply and demand. Therefore, Bitcoin may pull back to previous support levels, or even further down, to digest previous gains.
In addition, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50 for the first time since November 6, it is expected that sellers will dominate the market in the coming week, which may lead to Bitcoin's price oscillating and consolidating below $95,000 for some time.
Cryptocurrency research analyst CoinSeer believes that the important support range for Bitcoin lies between $85,000 and $88,000. Once this range is broken, it may trigger a large-scale chain liquidation.
TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out that yesterday's sharp pullback in Bitcoin caught the market off guard. He believes there are several main factors behind the pullback: first, the excitement following the elections is gradually fading; second, the psychological barrier of $100,000 has brought significant pressure. However, TradingShot emphasizes that there is a more important technical factor that the market may have overlooked.
Analysts point out that the recent Bitcoin trend bears similarities to the Fibonacci channels in the past three cycles (including the current cycle). This channel started from the top in December 2013, where a strong rebound occurred, and the top at that time was precisely at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This level served as resistance during the bull markets on June 24, 2019, and May 11, 2024.
TradingShot analysts believe that the recent pullback is precisely because Bitcoin has reached the 'first real resistance of this bull market cycle'. He explained that this Fibonacci trend line (a key area that blocks upward movement) marks the first major resistance level before the bull market cycle ultimately peaks. In the past two cycles, Bitcoin's highs occurred at the 0.0 Fibonacci level, which is the top of the channel (red circle part). Although he mentioned that the red point at the end of 2025 is not a prediction, but just for comparison.
Additionally, TradingShot has observed that the duration of each bull market cycle is approximately 150 weeks (or 1050 days), and if this pattern continues, the peak may occur at the end of September or early October 2025.
He further pointed out that attempting to predict and seize the bull market peak to sell is usually more actionable than simply giving an exact price prediction. Although BTC is currently facing resistance technically, the current rise began from the low point on August 5, 2024, which is just at the 1-week MA50 (blue trend line). Technically speaking, as long as this trend line holds, Bitcoin's bull market wave should be able to continue.
