Nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are betting on a six-figure price for BTC by the end of 2024, with some anticipating a surge to $150,000, despite its recent dip to $90,000, according to onchain data.
“Interestingly, the likelihood of BTC exceeding $100,000 has risen to 45% from last week’s 34%, with a new 4% probability of surpassing $150,000,” noted Nick Forster, founder of the onchain options DeFi protocol, in a Nov. 26 markets report.
Strong demand for Bitcoin options
Forster highlighted that the high demand for Bitcoin options, especially calls betting on price increases, “signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”
Data from Derive shows that 41.3% of contracts traded were calls, while 38.3% were puts betting Bitcoin would drop, with “very few sellers.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $92,680, down 7.02% from its peak near $100,000, which topped out at $99,541, according to CoinMarketCap.
The data indicates Bitcoin has a 68% chance of ending 2024 between $81,493 and $115,579.
However, there’s only a 5% chance of it falling below $70,000 to $68,429 or rising as high as $137,645.
Analysts warn of potential pullbacks
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju cautioned on Nov. 26 that even in a “parabolic bull run, Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks.”
Ju noted that similar corrections “repeatedly occurred” during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin surged from $17,000 to $64,000.
“This isn’t a call for a correction — just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market,” Ju advised.
Meanwhile, prominent crypto analyst PlanC expressed optimism about Bitcoin consolidating around $90,000.
“It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s,” PlanC stated, adding that such consolidation would be “the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market.”
