The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting on Tuesday evening, indicating support for "gradual" interest rate cuts, but if inflation data does not meet expectations, the pace of rate cuts may slow or even pause. (Background: Fed officials support continued rate cuts, and the Fed's hawkish players have also stated: December rate cuts are reasonable) (Context: Powell's hawkish stance of "not in a hurry to cut rates" led to Bitcoin dropping to $86,600, and the stock market fell as well; October PPI showed that inflation remains sticky) The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut rates by 25 basis points in the November meeting, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Last night (26), the Fed officially released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting. At that time, Fed officials expressed belief that inflation is moderating, and the risks of a significant slowdown in the economy and labor market have diminished, thus supporting further rate cuts in the future. However, they also emphasized a cautious approach, cutting rates "gradually" based on data performance, and if inflation data does not meet expectations, the pace of rate cuts may slow or pause. In discussing the monetary policy outlook, participants anticipated that if data aligns with expectations and inflation continues to decline to 2%, with the economy still near maximum employment levels, then a "gradual" shift towards a more neutral policy may be appropriate. However, some analysts believe that the Fed's slowing pace of rate cuts after profits were taken following Trump's election victory may delay the peak of Bitcoin's bull market. Will the Fed slow its pace of rate cuts? The minutes also revealed that at this month's meeting, 19 officials unanimously approved the 25 basis point cut. Some officials believe that the upside risks of inflation have not changed significantly, while the downside risks to economic activity or the labor market have weakened. Some officials also pointed out that monetary policy needs to balance the risks of acting too quickly or too slowly; acting too quickly may hinder further efforts to combat inflation, while acting too slowly may overly weaken the economy and employment. Some participants indicated that if inflation remains persistently high, the FOMC may "pause" easing policy rates and maintain them at restrictive levels. Moreover, many officials also believe that the uncertainty around the so-called neutral interest rate complicates the assessment of the degree of monetary policy restriction. The neutral interest rate refers to a policy level that neither restricts nor stimulates economic growth. Officials' estimates of the neutral interest rate have continuously risen over the past year. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated on Tuesday that his forecast for the neutral interest rate is close to the median estimate of Fed officials in the September dot plot, which is 2.9%. Fed officials support a rate cut in December. The Fed will hold the December FOMC meeting on December 18. Goolsbee expects that the Fed will continue to cut rates, taking a position of "neither restricting nor stimulating economic activity" and stated, "unless there is some compelling evidence of economic overheating, I see no reason not to continue to lower the federal funds rate." Last week, he reiterated his support for further rate cuts and expressed an openness to moving at a slower pace. On the same day, the so-called "hawk king," Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, explicitly supported the Fed cutting rates in December, stating that it is still reasonable for the central bank to consider another rate cut in December. As of today, from what I know, there is still consideration for a 25 basis point cut in December — this is a reasonable debate for us. Extended reading: Fed officials support continued rate cuts, and the Fed's hawkish players also state: December rate cuts are reasonable. FedWatch: December rate cut probability surpasses 60%. However, given the ongoing economic resilience in the U.S. and recent strong inflation data, several Fed officials have urged a cautious approach to future rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell also signaled a hawkish stance this month, suggesting officials will cut rates "cautiously." The economy has not conveyed any urgent signals for rate cuts, and better economic conditions allow us to act cautiously in our decision-making. Powell's hawkish signals have also led to a sharp decline in market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but after the FOMC meeting minutes were released yesterday, the market slightly increased bets on a 25 basis point cut in December, rising from about 52% yesterday to the current 66.6%, while the probability of pausing rate cuts is only 33.4%. However, both markets and institutions are also predicting that the Fed will slow the pace of rate cuts next year. Nomura Securities' latest forecast indicates that the Fed will pause rate cuts at the December meeting and will only cut rates by 25 basis points in March and June of 2025; Cathay United Bank's chief economist Lin Qi-chao stated last week that the Fed is still expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December this year, and then again by 25 basis points in March and June next year. Source: FedWatch tool Related reports: Powell's hawkish stance of "not in a hurry to cut rates" led to Bitcoin dropping to $86,600, and the stock market fell; October PPI showed inflation remains sticky. Tonight's CPI report to be released. Fed official Kashkari: If inflation unexpectedly rises, December may pause rate cuts. Powell stands firm: Trump won't force resignation, the election won't affect Fed rate decisions... but is there a change in December rate cuts? Fed cuts by 50 basis points, what impact does this have on the crypto market? Will Bitcoin welcome a new wave of growth? "The November FOMC meeting minutes: The pace of rate cuts may slow or even pause, and the outlook for the neutral interest rate" was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).