#比特币盘整分析

Avocado Exclusive Fundamental News——

1. Rick Wostert, President of Charles Schwab, stated in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that the company will consider offering spot cryptocurrency trading once U.S. regulations allow it. The company is preparing for this possibility as it expects the U.S. regulatory environment to change and will enter the spot cryptocurrency market when it does.

2. Last week, BTC ETF inflows reached $3.376 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow at $2.054 billion and Fidelity's FBTC inflow at $773 million. On November 21, BTC's market share rose to about 60%, a peak for this cycle, but by this Monday, it had dropped to about 56%, while the market capitalization of other cryptocurrencies significantly increased as prices began to rise. According to Cointelegraph data, stablecoin issuer Tether has issued over $15 billion in new stablecoins since November 2024.

3. The total amount of U.S. Treasury debt has exceeded $36 trillion, reaching a new high, with an increase of $1 trillion in just three months. U.S. debt continues to grow, and Trump is better at spending money. Morgan Stanley predicts that the strength of the dollar will peak before the end of the year, after which it will enter a bearish trend, slowly declining into 2025 (the dollar is considered a so-called safe-haven asset, while U.S. stocks/gold/cryptocurrency markets are referred to as so-called risk assets, and the two often have an inverse relationship).

4. In the past few days, BTC's market capitalization share has decreased by 4%, while some cryptocurrencies have risen to new highs for the second half of the year or the year. The time when Bitcoin stands at a high position is when other cryptocurrencies can catch up, which often happens in a bull market. Last week, from the perspective of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts/BTC market share/capital greed, it was simply analyzed that the bull market is far from peaking, and it is necessary to avoid emotional reactions during a bull market. The short-term factors affecting the market are Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the U.S. inflation indicator PCE price index (previous value 2.7%, expected value 2.8%), with the current probability of a rate cut in December at 52.7%. Wednesday's data will affect the probability of a rate cut in December.