Is Bitcoin’s rally running out of steam?
No way, says Noelle Acheson, a macroeconomics analyst and author of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter.
“There are as yet no signs the bull run is anywhere near over” she wrote in the latest edition today. “I mean, my X feed is not yet full of excited traders showing off their Lambos.”
Bitcoin is hovering at about $93,000 as traders and market watchers anticipate a $100,000 breakthrough any minute now. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has surged 111% this year.
The question is, what happens if that $100,000 level is reached?
Some see a chance to take profits and sell their Bitcoin, while others see Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House as a catalyst driving Bitcoin even higher.
Two signs
Acheson says it still has room to run. There are two big signs.
One is onchain Bitcoin activity.
“This is somewhat distorted these days, with the ETFs gobbling up a lot of new demand that does not show up as ‘new addresses,’” she said. “But, unless much of the trading is ETF holders selling to ETF holders — so that the activity stays off-chain — total onchain volume is a reasonable proxy for increasing interest.”
That’s climbing, she said: “But [it] is nowhere near frothy levels just yet.”
Another driver, Acheson noted: The US dollar.
The greenback is near a two-year high after eight weekly gains in a row as investors weigh the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy.
“This has been on a tear recently, as confidence in US economic growth and slowing interest rate cut expectations has pushed up demand.”
Whether this will continue is anyone’s guess, but, she said:
“I’m still in the camp that the DXY [the US dollar index] will drop in coming weeks, as uncertainty about the US tariff policy gives way to uncertainty about spending plans, demand for US debt, and geopolitical realignment.”
Trump has promised to slap tariffs on imports to the US, spooking some investors as protectionist trade policies are likely to contribute to inflation.
A falling dollar is likely to help Bitcoin, “not just because the USD is the denominator in the most-traded pair, but also because of the release of global liquidity as importers around the world can breathe a bit easier.”
