Complete Analysis of the Market Trend in the Entire Cryptocurrency Circle
1. When Bitcoin was at 98,000, a large number of retail investors entered the market to 'buy the dip in altcoins.' This group believes that some altcoins are at the bottom, and even some have already peaked, yet there are still a lot of retail investors entering. However, this group did not consider that Bitcoin was at 98,000 each. Once Bitcoin corrects, even Ethereum will have a significant drop, so we believe that this round of correction in Bitcoin will liquidate a large number of long positions and, through Bitcoin's correction, will severely harvest the market. Anyone who thinks Ethereum won't drop below 3,000, or below 2,000 will later receive a lesson from the market.
2. Currently, regarding whether this is a bull market, everyone should know that the basic condition for a 'so-called bull market' to start is that the short positions need to exceed the long positions, and during the rising process, there will occasionally be corrections of 20% or a 'long squeeze' to clear out the longs. However, this round of increase has never truly cleared out the longs, so it is just Bitcoin's explosive rise and does not belong to a 'bull market.' If there are doubts about this view, 'please check the market in early 2014, 2017, and 2021.'
3. Regarding 'Trump's bullishness,' everyone should also know that when the ETF was launched, a large number of retail investors believed it would break 5,000, but we saw it go to 2,100, which didn’t even reach 2,100. So sometimes, bullish news is just positioning. The leaders in the U.S. are not elected based on political awakening or political principles, but rather on the power of capital. A leader's bullishness likely indicates capital positioning, which is why Buffett said he wouldn’t take Bitcoin even if you give it to him for 50 dollars.
4. The recent surge in Bitcoin is likely similar to what happened in 2021, trying to entice our domestic capital into the market and then harvest domestic capital, but this time our domestic capital is simply not entering the market, regardless of how foreign capital plays.
5. Do not be influenced by some retail investors' remarks; this market is not a market where retail investors can make money. With Bitcoin at 98,000, a large number of altcoins are still at the bottom, are they handing out money to everyone? So everyone should think twice.
6. If Bitcoin can be used by a country as a key to fend off debt, it can only indicate that this country is heading towards an 'economic collapse situation,' and the trade war may announce bankruptcy soon.