At 6:30 AM, Bitcoin fell below $93K!
This operation has made everyone a bit nervous, worried that the bull market is about to end. In fact, there is no need to worry; the overall trend is still upward. The ETF for Bitcoin is still flowing in, and the interest rate cut cycle is ongoing, especially with another rate cut scheduled for the 18th of next month.
Now for spot investors, the most important thing is to choose quality varieties and hold them without overthinking.
As for friends who are doing low-margin trades, don't clash head-on with shorts; the profit margin is limited, and the risks are greater, so there's no need for that.
Next, let's talk about today's BTC market: from the K-line, the 1-hour level has entered an upward trend, while the 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily levels are all showing a decline. The intraday resistance level is at $96,600, and the support level is at $92,600.
How to select quality altcoins
The Meme sector is currently undergoing an adjustment:
Previously, Meme coins were the market leaders, but recently they have started to pull back. Even though Elon Musk tweeted a few Memes, it still couldn't spark market enthusiasm. These projects often experience a 'one wave' market, where a surge is followed by a sell-off; even when old Elon personally steps in, he couldn't lift a 'golden dog,' indicating that the Meme market is indeed on a downward trend.
If a project lacks a narrative and there is no real support on-chain, it is advisable to clear positions at high levels and don't hold too many illusions! In the end, most Meme coins will only leave a pile of feathers; those that can truly survive are usually projects with strong communities and narrative capabilities.
Look at the trend: for example, Doge, with Musk's crazy promotion, the market is also speculating, bringing in a lot of traffic and funds, and Dogecoin naturally rises.
Look at the project community and team operations: if they can actively create narratives and drive project development, like the previous Neiro, with community support and the ability to promote the project, then it has the potential to last long-term.
Then look for strong market makers: only when these conditions are met does the project have more potential. After all, any project's speculation relies on traffic and funding support.
Although Bitcoin has pulled back, the altcoin market has suddenly ignited:
This wave of the market is mainly concentrated on old coins on CEX, with almost all old coins rising over 30% over the weekend. This wave is somewhat reminiscent of the collective return of large funds to CEX after the DeFi boom in 2020. Not many people were able to catch the CEX wave successfully; many made money in DeFi but missed the CEX opportunity, and the situation is similar this time.
Every pullback is actually the best opportunity to get in, but prioritize leading projects, public chains, DeFi, L2, and other mainstream options in the market, as these are usually the market's first choices.
Some buddies asked, how high can Solana go in this bull market?
I think its upside potential is significant, and it may have the opportunity to break through $800-$1000.
Solana's recent performance has been incredibly strong, breaking historical highs, and its market capitalization has exceeded $120 billion, becoming the second highest public chain by market capitalization after Ethereum. Driven by SOL, some projects in its ecosystem, such as the JTO staking protocol and the RAY decentralized exchange, have also surged.
So, what exactly has Solana done right?
I think the main reason SOL has been so strong lately is that it has captured this wave of MEME coins.
In this bull market, everyone says that not playing Meme coins on Solana is like missing out on the previous cycle of DeFi. The current Meme wave is on Solana, bringing a wealth effect and a surge of new projects.
The market's demand for Meme coins indirectly drives the demand for SOL, leading to its continuous price rise. The success of Solana, besides its technology and infrastructure, is more importantly its precise capture of market demand, launching some projects that meet that demand, like PumpFun and Moonshot.
Solana cleverly created an ecosystem that satisfies the market's greed through Meme coins. In this bull market, retail investors don't care about infrastructure; they care about which project will rise the fastest. Solana allows investors to spend just $100 to buy some Meme tokens, potentially becoming rich overnight.
This 'comeback' story perfectly satisfies the FOMO (fear of missing out) of thousands of new users, and this cycle continues to repeat, with Solana capturing this point well.
Since September of this year, SOL's priority trading fees have risen from 3000 to 55000, a 15-fold increase, indicating a frenzy in the market for Meme coins on the Solana chain, with everyone scrambling to seize market share for new opportunities. Therefore, if SOL maintains this trend, a price breakthrough to $800-$1000 is not impossible.
Let's review the first half of the bull market from 2020 to 2021:
Initially, DeFi brought heat to the crypto world, with projects like UNI, SUSHI, YFI, and YFII seeing crazy surges, followed by the Polkadot ecosystem's DOT and KSM skyrocketing, and finally projects like LUNA, FIL, and THETA emerging.
During that period, UNI and DOT were like dual turbo engines at the beginning of the bull market, driving the overall market atmosphere.
Now I believe that $NEIRO, $ACT, $PNUT, and other 'on-chain new assets' could become one of the engines of this bull market for several reasons:
1. The overall on-chain track continues to advance regardless of bull or bear markets. Especially from March to October 2024, while the Bitcoin market remains volatile and most secondary altcoins have entered deep bear markets, on-chain assets remain active. In a bull market, those sectors that perform solidly during a bear market tend to capture investors' attention the most.
2. I have previously mentioned that the core of the crypto world is a 24/7 casino, and the most attractive label of the casino is 'luck comes, a coin changes fate!'
Why do most people lose money in a bull market? Because the emotion of a bull market is FOMO; it's a chaotic environment where people are easily dazzled; every day there is a myth of getting rich quickly.
In such a restless market environment, it is not easy to stay calm. Especially in a bull market, many people easily lose their direction; what we actually need to do is 'subtraction' and learn to let go.
For example, coins like FIL, EOS, and ARB may experience a major rally, but I prefer to take advantage of the opportunity and run, focusing most of my energy on the main line while investing a small portion into the side lines. Even if I'm wrong, I won't miss out on the overall BETA gains of the bull market; but if I'm right, it's like getting a winning script.
Altcoins are still in a rebound and catch-up phase; unless large applications arise in certain ecosystems, these coins will not have a sustained major upward wave. For example, Bitcoin may consolidate around $100,000, meme coins are adjusting, and funds are beginning to flow into the altcoin sector, driving the short-term market. The recent rise of some obscure old coins is mainly due to institutional funds concentrating, making them easy to pump.
From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum's on-chain activities and demand have not changed significantly; gas fees are still at historically low levels, and inflationary pressures still exist. The high FDV and ongoing unlocking issues of altcoins remain unresolved.
Therefore, the current market situation is still in a rebound and catch-up phase. It is worth focusing on the rebound potential of tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem. After all, the current ETFs in the U.S. only involve Bitcoin and Ethereum; as the 'king of ecosystems,' Ethereum's position remains solid. The previous FUD led to a significant drop in its ecosystem tokens, and the potential for rebound is relatively large. For example, leading staking tokens like LDO; layer two solutions like OP, zk, STRK, ARB; and domain-related ENS, all deserve attention.