In the world, bustling crowds are all for profit; the world is full of noise for the sake of profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to a wide range of coin friends. Welcome the attention and likes from all coin friends, and reject any market smoke bombs.
Finally avoided a disaster again, this time the depth of the pullback looks really enviable. Many friends are struggling with whether the market can still rise in the future? A growth of 20,000 points can also pull back 4,000-5,000 points overnight, which is a fatal blow for contract users. For spot users, it is a day to test psychological endurance. The continuous two-day probing, including future funding volume issues, this wave of decline can be said to be somewhat unexpected. By the time Lao Cui reacts, there is simply no time to write an article, so everyone must maintain their own thinking mode to observe the market, and not wait for Lao Cui's articles as references every day. Let me reiterate that Lao Cui's articles are not for reference, and investment is always accompanied by risk. Posting is just a platform agreement, so everyone should just treat it as a lively event. Let's directly enter today's market theme analysis:
First, let's look at the economic threats to the cryptocurrency market. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expanding its impact every day, even resorting to the use of highly dangerous weapons. Everyone may have slightly underestimated the Russia-Ukraine situation. After more than a thousand days of war, it has made everyone somewhat numb, and even many financial analysts have begun to overlook the military impact. It is important to understand that ballistic missiles, once launched between two nuclear superpowers, could have direct military implications. Luckily, Ukraine is a conventional country and does not possess nuclear weapons. Yesterday, Putin also directly declared that after expanding the war, nuclear weapons would be directed at the US, which seems to be somewhat uncontrollable. The military aspect should not be something Lao Cui explains to everyone, but this aspect has seriously threatened the growth of the cryptocurrency market. Currently, the only influence that can reverse the market is military-related. Many friends think that deep pullbacks are basic operations in the crypto market, but that's not the case. Yesterday's pullback affected not only the crypto market but also US stocks and gold. For the short-term hedging properties, do not doubt this point; the expansion of military aspects does not confer the traditional title of a hedging asset. Observing the pullback in gold reveals the underlying issues; this is not merely a wave of selling in the crypto market.
The previous section mentioned the trends of US stocks and gold; the pullback depths of these two are indeed not as intense as Bitcoin's reaction. In contrast, one should first think that Bitcoin is a financial market that has not pulled back since Trump took office, having risen 20,000 points. A short-term deep pullback is within our acceptable range. The reason for the pullback, as I mentioned, is that under intense growth, there will certainly be the birth of bubbles. This wave of pullback depth is the normal pricing that the crypto market should have. When the market believes that this round of impact will reach 100,000 points, the market has already encountered problems. A crucial point to note is that after yesterday's deep pullback, Trump urgently purchased 1.7 million in crypto assets. Do you think there will still be a deep pullback under this news? Let me remind everyone that under the current trend, spot users must stabilize their mindset; the real growth has not yet arrived, and the larger trend will not end due to this round of pullback depth. This sudden decline may prompt large funds to reassess this market.
Next, let's take a look at the overall impact of funding levels. Yesterday, Bitcoin directly escaped 1 billion in assets in a single day, and within half a month, it has escaped 3.2 billion. Speculative assets have basically left the market, and the remaining assets are prepared to fight alongside us, looking at the bullish forces above 100,000. The total assets in the entire crypto market have already left the market with a total market value of about 0.3 trillion in the short term, which is within a normal range. Indeed, as we approach the interest rate cut in December, it will bring about new pullback depths. The hype about not cutting interest rates in December has begun again, and the probability of not cutting interest rates has reached 48%. Those who have been following Lao Cui naturally understand that interest rate cuts will basically arrive on time. The strength of the dollar, from the current perspective, indicates that strategies for the US have basically met their requirements. However, regarding future prospects, the possibility of interest rate cuts currently does have some impact, but it is best to remain skeptical of the earlier non-farm data from the US. If one blindly believes US data, this round of interest rate cuts should not take place. The credibility of the data still faces skepticism; the current pullback is basically deep enough overall.
Everyone needs to pay attention, the current funding pressure on Bitcoin still exists, and the pressure from above is still there. The interest rate cuts in December will basically show results at the beginning of the month. Once this wave of pain is over, Lao Cui's strategy remains primarily bullish. For altcoin users, the current performance of altcoins is still relatively reliable, as the flow of bubbles has less impact on altcoins. After all, most of the funds are concentrated in Bitcoin, and other coins are not significantly affected. The best strategic response is that once your Bitcoin position has a significant impact, you can short some other altcoins. Bitcoin contracts will definitely be primarily bullish, while the strategy for Ethereum is the opposite. As long as Ethereum has an increase of over 100 points, everyone can confidently short Ethereum, as the pullback depth for Ethereum will definitely reach 50 points or even more. The trends of Bitcoin and other coins should be handled separately. You can treat other coins as hedging assets, but Bitcoin should not be shorted. Although a bearish trend was observed last night, it was not communicated to everyone due to the constraints faced by users. Those who need communication can directly message Lao Cui. As the market gradually rises, the bubble expands rapidly, and the 90,000-100,000 point range is very likely to be washed back and forth before the US election, with the depth getting deeper. Contract users who cannot grasp short-term trends can try not to engage. However, if Bitcoin reaches a pullback depth of 3,000-5,000 points, spot users must consider averaging down, and position management is very important. Be prepared to average down at any time.
Lao Cui's summary: summarizing this section does not emphasize anything that needs special attention; basically, what should be said has been mentioned above. The key point to pay attention to now is the current trend, which is influenced by the later period after Trump's election. The funds that should have entered the market have basically all come in, and the remaining game is to see who loses patience first. Frequent washouts will definitely cause significant losses to contract users, but the action of bottom-fishing must be bravely done. The upcoming interest rate cuts in December will inevitably bring about another wave of increases, and the appointments within the crypto space after Trump's re-election are also very important. From the perspective of market sentiment, the bullish sentiment will continue until 2025. Spot users now need to do is to average down at low positions; deep pullbacks provide opportunities for everyone to enter and ambush. Contract users who cannot see the short-term situation clearly can choose not to enter. For users with large funds, continue with Lao Cui's previous thinking; the first order must be entered with a light position, and then gradually average down. The entry point can only be around 5% of the total position. This 5% limit is the highest restriction; the minimum can even be as low as 0.5%. Entering at the current price is also acceptable!
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Lao Cui's words: Investing is like playing chess; experts can see five, seven, or even more than ten steps ahead, while those with poor chess skills can only see two or three steps. The skilled ones consider the overall situation and strategize, not focusing on individual pieces or moves, with the ultimate goal of winning the game. The less skilled ones fight for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in repeated entrapment.
This material is for educational reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Any trading actions taken based on this are at your own risk!
