Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The process of BTC's first attempt to break 100,000 USD seems to have temporarily declared failure.
From last night until early this morning, BTC experienced the largest "small correction" in half a month. OKX market data shows that BTC fell to 92601.6 USDT this morning, and as of the writing (around 10:30, with subsequent market data taken from this time), it is currently quoted at 94620 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of 2.91%.
The emphasis on being a "small correction" is due to the fact that although BTC has fallen more than 6000 USDT from yesterday's peak (98876 USDT), calculating with the current price benchmark of 90,000 USDT, the maximum drop is less than 5%, which somewhat deviates from our previous thought patterns.
The most noticeable difference in this correction is that Alt-coins did not "crash immediately" as they usually do when the major coins retract. Most Alt-coins have experienced a prolonged surge, which has slowed down, but the overall drop is not significant, and some even maintain a slight increase.
Currently, ETH in a state of catch-up has surprisingly "showed some strength," currently quoted at 3452.2 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 3.27%, alongside ecological projects such as LDO, ENS, and EIGEN maintaining strong performance.
SOL, which had just reached a new high, has entered a correction phase, currently quoted at 239.21 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of 4.33%. Additionally, possibly affected by the DEXX hacker starting to cash out, the Solana ecological meme sector has encountered a general downturn, with MOODENG, SLERF, and BONK all dropping over 10%.
In the U.S. stock market, MicroStrategy (MSTR) closed at 403.45 USD, down 4.37%; Coinbase (COIN) closed at 312.22 USD, up 2.49%; MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at 26.42 USD, up 1.5%.
CoinGecko data shows that the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has fallen back to 3.41 trillion USD, shrinking by 2.8% in 24 hours. The trading enthusiasm among crypto users has also significantly increased, with the Alternative 'fear and greed' index today reporting 79, which, although still classified as "extreme greed," has noticeably decreased from last week's average of 90.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated 526 million USD, with long positions still accounting for more than half, but short positions also reaching 141 million USD. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC faced liquidations of 146 million USD, and ETH faced liquidations of 86.93 million USD.
Correction triggers: Profit-taking & Overbought adjustments
Regarding the short-term correction that BTC is facing, various institutions/traders have provided their market judgments.
Bitfinex mentioned in its latest report that long-term holders (LTH) have begun to take profits.
Crypto Banter analyst Kyledoops also mentioned the same data, indicating that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 128,000 BTC, even though Bitcoin spot ETFs absorbed 90% of the selling pressure during the same period.
Another set of opinions focuses on the market's overbought structure.
Stephane Ouellette, CEO of cryptocurrency investment firm FRNT Financial Inc., stated, "Since Trump's victory, Bitcoin has been overbought, so a stagnation in the upward trend is a normal phenomenon."
IG Australia Pty market analyst Tony Sycamore also stated that the recent Bitcoin pullback is a "much-needed correction to eliminate overbought data, rather than a reversal or any sinister situation."
Future predictions: Is ETH more optimistic?
As for the future market trends, opinions vary significantly among different parties.
Adrian Przelozny, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Independent Reserve, stated that the current bullish market sentiment will persist until 2025; at the same time, well-known trader Eugene stated that he has taken profit on long positions and advised investors to remain cautious.
Relatively speaking, ETH, which has begun to enter the catch-up phase, seems to have a more optimistic outlook moving forward.
On one hand, the BTC spot ETF has begun to experience net outflows, ending a week-long trend of net inflows; conversely, the ETH spot ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days, also ending a week-long trend of net outflows.
Meanwhile, well-known analyst Kaleo posted historical data indicating that during the last bull market, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit bottom 220 days after the halving, and today marks exactly the 220th day after this halving...
Considering that ETH has recently shown a rare upward trend against the market, it is not ruled out that a similar scenario may unfold again.
As for where the funds in older coins are? Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams' recent tweet provides a clear direction — after Meme Lord Murad called on Chinese Meme coin players to join the Meme coin super cycle in Chinese, Ryan published a tweet on platform X stating, "Ethereum is money" (similar to a machine translation of Ethereum is money), directly calling for investment in Ethereum. Previously, he had also (rather vacuously) stated, "When demand finally arrives, ETH will experience an unprecedented supply shock, after which Ethereum will be in short supply."
