Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio expressed relief over the peaceful transfer of power following the U.S. presidential election and shared his views on Trump's series of appointments and future changes in the situation. The article also mentions TSMC, reminding investors to pay attention to policy changes for better investment decisions.

Changes in the U.S. domestic order

Trump plans to undertake large-scale government reforms aimed at increasing efficiency, which includes replacing key personnel, cutting costs, and introducing new technologies.

Government reform

Trump's choices for accomplishing this goal included tech giant Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who co-led the 'Government Efficiency Department,' along with many others, some within the government and some who would become external consultants. They are loyalists determined to win at all costs, loyal to the mission of overturning the so-called 'deep state' and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic power and counter foreign enemies.

Note: The deep state refers to a group composed of non-elected officials, government bureaucrats, civil servants, the military-industrial complex, the financial industry, conglomerates, and intelligence agencies, which protect their vested interests and truly and practically control the country behind the scenes.

Once these individuals are in place, similar appointment methods may be used to clear those in the government accused of being part of the 'deep state,' extending to the military, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, and other units. Because the Republicans achieve an absolute majority, it is expected that most appointed positions will be under control.

Note: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has announced he will resign on Trump’s inauguration day.

Dalio believes that Trump and his chosen individuals will reform the government and the nation like corporate raiders conducting a hostile takeover of an inefficient company, implementing massive reforms by changing personnel, cutting costs, and injecting new forces.

Economic policies will favor Wall Street and tech companies

The new policies will benefit Wall Street and tech companies, reduce government restrictions on businesses, and promote the development of capital markets.

The country's economic innovation is likely to be achieved through industrial policies that enhance productivity and efficiency, with certain key areas (including education and debt management, which Dalio considers most important) possibly being overlooked. As long as the partnership between Trump and Musk continues, they will be the primary architects and implementers of this new domestic order.

These policies are likely to benefit Wall Street, certain tech companies, and most businesses troubled by regulation and concerned about tax increases. These changes will be significant for financial transaction policymakers, banks, and asset management firms, as they will have more freedom, more money, and credit. These policies will be very favorable for tech companies supporting Trump, as they will be allowed to operate and develop in a virtually unrestricted manner. These policies will also benefit the legal industry. Additionally, artificial intelligence will not be regulated, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously increase taxes and protect domestic producers. If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates (which Dalio opposes), this will also shift large amounts of cash held in money market funds and other deposits to other markets, stimulating the market and the economy.

Critical technologies produced in the U.S.

To address threats from countries like China, the Trump administration will formulate policies to ensure that critical technologies are produced in the U.S. and strengthen domestic security measures. For example, ensuring that the U.S. has an acceptable number of all critical technologies, and that these technologies are manufactured in the U.S. (for instance, by 2030, 20% of the most advanced chips must be produced in the U.S.) or by allies.

Changes in the international world order

The international world order will also change, with the United States pursuing an 'America First' policy, clearly delineating allies and enemies. Dalio believes that America is now ending an era led by itself and entering a more self-serving era.

Pursuing America First, choosing allies and enemies based on strategic considerations

China will be viewed as the primary enemy, as it is both the most powerful and ideologically the most opposed, with Russia, North Korea, and Iran also being enemies. All countries will face enormous pressure and potential negative consequences if they do not side with the United States. The conflict among major powers will create opportunities, particularly business opportunities, for neutral non-aligned countries.

Dalio mentioned the importance of TSMC

Dalio believes that to achieve government goals and increase government influence, the free market and profit-driven system in the United States may be sacrificed. Along these lines, we should expect the government to exert more influence on private markets to achieve its objectives. Therefore, we should remember that the cost efficiency and national security achieved through cooperation between the government and national champion companies are the primary goals, not just profit, as profit cannot achieve these goals. Dalio cites that these policy shifts may benefit the energy and mineral industries supporting artificial intelligence technology; meanwhile, due to the inability of advanced semiconductors in the United States to meet its demands, the U.S. must establish critical relationships with foreign manufacturers like Taiwan's TSMC to produce in the U.S., minimizing dependence on foreign adversaries.

The initial phase is critical, and investors need to stay vigilant.

Dalio finally mentioned that, in addition to the above, there are immigration and deportation actions, trade and tariff reforms, tax reductions, and significant reforms to the healthcare system. There is very little time to accomplish these difficult tasks, with the first 100 days being the most critical, followed by the first two years, so priorities must be set. Although it is currently unknown what the new government will prioritize and whether it will be able to execute successfully, Dalio is still confident that this will be an interesting and important moment, so investors must remain vigilant to make better decisions.

This article Ray Dalio: Changes in the U.S. and World Order Under the Trump Administration, How Should Investors Adjust Their Strategies, first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.