Let’s outline the main upcoming time nodes and their impact on the market:

1. This week, due to Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the U.S. stock market will open on Monday and Wednesday, with a half-day early closure on Thursday. Data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy minutes have been moved up to Wednesday. Black Friday is a shopping extravaganza for Americans, which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.

2. On December 10, the results of Microsoft's shareholder vote on whether to invest in Bitcoin will be announced. If they decide to invest, it will bring in a $5 billion buy order, which should drive a price increase of 5-10%. If not, it will be a short-term bearish signal.

3. On December 19, the Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates, with the market expecting a further 25 basis point cut. Although inflation is rebounding due to Trump's election, this will not affect the pace of rate cuts in the short term.

4. December 20 will bring Christmas and fiscal events, both of which will negatively affect liquidity. Special attention should be paid to fiscal matters, as they have a significant impact on U.S. stocks, and the domestic New Year will also be approaching.

5. On January 20, 2025, Trump will take office as president, while the SEC chairman will resign. This will usher in the first cryptocurrency president, which is a major positive development, and could lead to further speculation on Trump’s presidency.

6. On January 29, the interest rate decision will be crucial, particularly regarding whether Trump’s administration can influence the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts. If they can speed up the process, it will be a positive signal.

There are also some events to consider: compensation for FTX users will start at the end of December, beginning with amounts below $50,000, followed by larger amounts in the first quarter of next year. This will provide direct liquidity.

What I am most concerned about is the market expectation that the U.S. will end QT (Quantitative Tightening) in the first quarter of next year. Once QT ends, it will bring direct liquidity to the market, which is more effective than rate cuts.

In summary, starting this Thursday, the U.S. stock market will be closed, leading to a liquidity shortage. Special attention should be paid to the potential correction in Bitcoin around this time, and if Microsoft's vote does not pass, it will be another bearish signal.

Additionally, the interest rate decision may result in minimal volatility. An unexpected event would be a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, followed by liquidity withdrawal during Christmas and fiscal events, as well as the domestic New Year.

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