Last night, the Bitcoin price corrected and fell below 96,000, causing many friends to worry and begin to frequently trade, chasing rises and cutting losses, fearing a large drop.
However, from the on-chain data, the current trend is still positive. Large amounts of Bitcoin continue to flow out of exchanges. From the 19th to the 25th, over 12,000 Bitcoins flowed out of exchanges, indicating that big capital is still accumulating.
Regarding Bitcoin ETFs, there was an inflow of 190 million dollars last Thursday and 500 million dollars last Friday.
So don't worry, a bull market won't keep rising; there's no market that goes up every day. When the market is not rising and is correcting, you should still hold on.
The key is to hold on; this round of US policy-driven bull market is very crazy. Don’t wait until the price rises to ask whether you can still buy. It’s only when it hasn't risen significantly that you can sneak in for greater returns.
The next week is Thanksgiving, and historically, the financial market performs relatively well during this period. After all, during big holidays, no one wants to fall flat on their face; it is expected that the US stock market, including the crypto circle, will continue to maintain a volatile upward trend.
This week there are no particularly important events. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and on Wednesday, PCE, these also affect the basis for future interest rate cuts!
Why is there no widespread increase in altcoins like the last bull market at this stage:
The last bull market in 2021 was during a period of Federal Reserve easing, with ample hot money. Now we have just begun to cut interest rates, and there is still a distance to easing, but it has improved compared to the beginning of this year. The future is worth looking forward to. In fact, 2021 was only a period of widespread increase for altcoins in the first half, with a focus on popular tracks in the second half, while others made little progress. Therefore, one must learn to pick projects.
So how do you filter out high-quality and valuable altcoins?
Popular tracks such as public chains, MEME, AI, gaming, L2, and DEFI show differences in performance among projects within the same track. For example, in MEME, while people, doge, and floki are all established MEMEs, people has a small increase, while doge and floki have surged. Why is this?
1. Narrative: For example, Doge gained attention due to Musk's mention, attracting traffic and capital injection, which triggered market speculation, leading to a natural price increase.
2. Project community team operations: The community team actively creates narratives or promotes the listing process, for example, after being listed on Binance, expanding to platforms like CB, Bithumb, Upbit, etc.
3. Strong market makers: Supported by strong market makers.
Meeting these conditions makes valuation and price increase more potential; otherwise, it is limited. This rule also applies to public chains, gaming, DEFI, etc., after all, speculation on any coin cannot be separated from traffic and capital.
To judge market speculation and new tracks, pay attention to Binance, CB dynamics, the US macro situation, mainstream media and US stock market hotspots, as well as statements from celebrities in the crypto field. Look for corresponding narrative projects in the crypto market and analyze them, closely following the market speculation trend. The market is always right.
In the past one to two years, new tracks like Depin, RWA, Payfi, BTCfi, etc., have emerged, and attention should be paid to whether similar projects have attracted large capital.
The speculation in DOGE and PNUT over the past month is an example. Even if it cannot be predicted, timely follow-up can grasp opportunities, after all, PNUT did not achieve success overnight.
