Duterte's daughter issued a death warrant, what signal does this send externally, and why is Marcos in trouble? In such a situation, is China guaranteed to win? Recently, Duterte's daughter, Sara, the vice president of the Philippines, issued a death warrant. She publicly stated that if she were harmed, she would hold President Marcos, his wife, and the Speaker of the House accountable. She believes her country is heading towards hell and that the leaders are all liars. Regarding this matter, I would like to mention three points.
First point, Sara's statement represents that the struggle between the two major political families in the Philippines has already reached a fever pitch. Since Marcos officially became president, there have been many disagreements between the two families, for example, they could not reach a consensus on issues related to the South China Sea and the United States. Therefore, in June of this year, Sara, as vice president, had already resigned from all cabinet positions.
Moreover, when Marcos delivered his third State of the Nation Address in late July, vice president Sara also did not attend. In mid-September this year, Sara publicly stated that she would announce her presidential election plan in 2026 and would not continue to ally with the Marcos family. Correspondingly, the Marcos family is also taking action against the Duterte family.
As early as the beginning of September, Philippine church leader Quiboloy, who was once hailed as Duterte's 'spiritual advisor,' and his four assistants were forced to surrender under the siege of military and police. The Marcos family is likely launching a political purge against the Duterte family. In this situation, it is not impossible for Marcos to take action against members of the Duterte family to maintain his power.
Second point, the internal conflict in the Philippines is intensifying, and China is bound to win.
Although Marcos is now president and his cousin serves as the Speaker of the Philippine Congress, the Duterte family, as an old political family, still holds significant influence. The intensification of the struggle between the two families will lead Marcos to focus more attention on internal issues, making it difficult for him to do more on the South China Sea issue, giving China more advantages in this matter. If the Duterte family succeeds in this struggle, the China-Philippines relationship may undergo significant changes in the future. After all, Duterte was relatively friendly towards China when he was president. At that time, the order in the South China Sea was overall stable, and the two countries signed a series of economic and infrastructure cooperation agreements.
Under Duterte's leadership, China-Philippines cooperation has brought rapid growth to the Philippine economy. Therefore, Marcos is now facing considerable difficulties.
Third point, the United States is likely to become a behind-the-scenes manipulator of the future political situation in the Philippines, as the U.S. evidently still wants to use the Philippines to disrupt the South China Sea situation. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin recently revealed the existence of the so-called 'Sierra Madre Task Force,' and senior U.S. military officials have previously promised that the U.S. might invoke the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Agreement to provide escort services for the transportation of supplies to the 'grounded ship' in the South China Sea. All of this indicates that the relationship between the U.S. and the current Philippine President Marcos should be quite good, so they probably will not sit idly by while Marcos fails in the internal political struggle. Therefore, the Chinese side also needs to make some targeted preparations for the future. It can be said that Sara's death warrant may herald the conclusion of the struggle in the Philippines, and the outcome of the conflict between the two families is likely to emerge soon. What role the U.S. will play in this is something we can look forward to. But for China, regardless of the outcome, the situation in the South China Sea is under China's control and will not change.