Last week, the price of gold broke through $2,700, with a weekly increase of 5.97%, the best performance since March 2023; and Bitcoin, which has attracted much attention from crypto professionals, also continued to set new highs last week and is heading towards $100,000, attracting global attention. #比特币突破10万？
Bitcoin’s $100,000 milestone comes as a year ago, Bitcoin was trading at just $30,000. Fast forward to today, and its value has soared by more than 300%. Trump’s campaign support for regulatory clarity in cryptocurrencies has sparked optimism and attracted great interest from both institutional and retail investors. The rise of cryptocurrencies has been supported by growing optimism that the new administration will take steps to promote the cryptocurrency industry, rather than restrict it.
Previously, I published an article about when the total market value of Bitcoin will surpass Nvidia. Now Bitcoin is close to $100,000, and Nvidia is worth $3.6 trillion. It is no coincidence that the asset classes with the largest growth in the past decade all have "computation" in common. From a physics perspective, any change in anything can be considered a form of computational process. Now Trump has also vowed to transform the United States into a global center for cryptocurrency, even calling it a "Bitcoin superpower" and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Now, industry leaders such as Musk have taken on advisory roles.
How long will it take to reach 100,000 US dollars?
Bitcoin’s march toward $100,000 is more than just a milestone; it reflects the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class.
Why did it stop at 100,000 US dollars in the past two days?
Despite the positive news, the price failed to break through $100,000, mainly due to the following reasons:
1. The inevitable selling pressure: To put it simply, from the time of King of Understanding’s selection to now, Bitcoin has risen too fast. When it was close to $100,000, a large number of early investors chose to take profits, causing a short-term price correction.
2. Psychological threshold pressure: Integers are commemorative. As a historical threshold, $100,000 naturally has greater resistance than other thresholds, and the market needs more time to digest this height.
3. Regulatory risks: At the end of November, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it might impose higher taxes on crypto transactions, causing market anxiety.
4. Liquidity issue: As the end of the year approaches, liquidity is tightening and traditional markets are entering holiday mode. There is an expectation that new funds will hold back on entering the market.
5. Technical pullback: The overbought range has been touched many times, and technical indicators show that the market may experience a correction.
How long will it take to reach the historic 10W?
Looking back at the 21st year, Bitcoin broke through $60,000. Tesla's acceptance of Bitcoin payments and El Salvador's use of it as legal tender helped push the price to a new high. This year continued Bitcoin's bull market pattern since 2021, but failed to break through the psychological barrier. Although it failed to break through $100,000 this time, in the long run, its value as a decentralized asset is still widely optimistic.
As for when the breakthrough will happen, we need to pay attention to these indicators and data this week!
It is necessary to pay attention to these
1. On interest rate cuts
Money market data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is over 50%, and it is expected that the cumulative rate cut will be 67 basis points by the end of 2025. Historical data shows that whenever the Federal Reserve enters a rate cut cycle, risk assets, especially Bitcoin, tend to perform exceptionally strongly. This is because rate cuts mean lower funding costs and increased market liquidity, which is particularly beneficial for high-risk, high-yield assets such as cryptocurrencies. #
2. Bitcoin halving
Bitcoin has only halved four times, and $100,000 is just the beginning! Check out this chart to see how many more halvings there are.
3. Market focus this week
1. Will ETFs continue to maintain a state of continuous inflow like last week? According to Dune data, the on-chain holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded 1.044 million BTC, accounting for 5.28% of the current supply, and the on-chain value is as high as US$94.4 billion. This shows that institutional investors are full of confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin.
If the inflow continues, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will break 100,000 this week! Will it suck blood from other coins again? If it sucks blood from other coins, when Bitcoin adjusts, the sucked-blood coins will usher in a rebound, and the sectors will rotate!
In addition, the chain was relatively sluggish in the second half of last week. Let’s see if a big golden dog will appear this week to lead the rhythm of the chain!
2. The Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes and October PCE data will be released on Wednesday. #PCE与美联储纪要公布在即
At 03:00 on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting. At 21:30 on Wednesday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 23, and the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States
HSBC economists pointed out that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting may show some policymakers' discussions on the possible economic impact of the US election results.
3. Technical structure
At present, Bitcoin has closed at a high level for many consecutive days, indicating that the market is in a short-term bull-bear tug-of-war state. In terms of price, it fluctuates and adjusts along the 5-day moving average, and there is no obvious correction. This shows that the market bulls are still strong. In terms of indicators, the MACD bullish kinetic energy column adjustment is about to end, indicating that the upward trend still has the momentum to continue. It is expected that there is a high probability that it will continue to run along the 5-day moving average and set a new record high in the next few days. $ETH
