As Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, from an intuitive point of view, although the probability of Bitcoin rising is small, once it rises, it will soar; although the probability of falling is high, the price will at most be cut in half.
Imagine that you are sitting on a high-speed train heading to the future. At this time, the train suddenly stops. There is an 80% probability that it will reverse and start again after an hour. At the same time, there is a 20% probability that it will suddenly start. If you miss it, you will never be able to get on the train again.
So, will you get off the train to play for an hour and bet that the train will not suddenly start?
It is recommended not to gamble. There will be no tricks in that hour. If that low-probability event happens, the consequences will be very serious.
For Bitcoin, this low-probability event is the black swan event we often mention. Once a major crisis breaks out in an economy, the Bitcoin train suddenly starts, and you happen to get off the train, then you can only wait and see from then on.
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