Today (November 25), BTC fell to $97,000, down 2.39% from its high of $99,588, but several analysts and the gambling industry remain optimistic about BTC's upward trend in the bull market.
BTC Pullback, Whales Increase BTC Holdings at Low Points
According to AICoin market data, BTC is currently reported at $97,578, having dropped to a low of $97,000 since the peak on November 23. AICoin monitors suggest that this decline was mainly due to traders taking profits as BTC approached the psychological barrier of $100,000.
Image Source: AICoin
It is worth noting that this price pullback has not triggered panic in the market; rather, it has provided some investors with a buying opportunity on dips. According to market observations, whales have withdrawn more than 1,110 BTC from exchanges during the price decline, indicating that there is still a long-term optimistic sentiment towards BTC in the market.
KOL Perspective
Analysts from the well-known investment firm VanEck recently released a report stating that BTC's next bull market is "gradually unfolding." VanEck specifically noted that a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S. and increasing participation from institutional investors are important factors driving future increases in BTC's price.
VanEck predicts that BTC's price may reach $180,000 within the next 18 months, stating that the current market is still in the early stages of a bull market. The report noted that key indicators such as recent funding rates for Bitcoin, relative unrealized profits (RUP), and retail interest all show a strong upward trend.
Investors are also advised to pay attention to the 30-day moving average (DMA) RUP indicator. VanEck stated that a 30 DMA RUP level between 0.60 and 0.70 often yields the highest short-term to mid-term returns (7 days to 180 days). This range typically reflects the mid-stage of a bull market, where optimism is rising but has not yet become excessive. In contrast, overall, RUP >0.70 is consistently associated with negative returns across all time frames, and RUP >0.70 is a strong sell signal.
Image Source: VanEck Report
In addition to VanEck, other cryptocurrency analysts also hold positive expectations for BTC's future trend. The AI Investment Committee from Intelligent Alpha predicts that under certain favorable conditions, BTC's price could reach $140,000. This prediction is also based on the macroeconomic environment and widespread demand for BTC.
Georgii Verbitskii also pointed out that BTC may rise to between $100,000 and $120,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025, ultimately reaching $180,000 by the end of 2025. Verbitskii stated that as more investors enter the market, the upward trend in BTC's price will be further sustained.
Trader and market analyst Peter Brandt shared Bitcoin's current parabolic characteristics, indicating that the upward trend of Bitcoin may continue into January.
Gambling Market Predictions
According to data from the gambling platform Kalshi, the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 or higher in 2024 is 91%.
Predictions in the gambling market are often seen as an indicator of market sentiment, and many investors adjust their investment strategies based on this data. The optimistic expectations in the gambling market suggest that the market generally believes BTC's price will continue to rise in the near future.
Summary
Overall, despite short-term fluctuations in the market, most analysts hold an optimistic view on BTC's long-term development, given the improving macroeconomic environment, friendly regulatory policies, and active participation from institutional investors. Predictions from VanEck, AI analysis from Intelligent Alpha, and expectations from the gambling market all indicate that BTC may encounter new highs in future price trends. Investors should remain cautious in the face of these positive expectations, fully assess the dynamic changes in the market and potential risks, to develop a more robust investment strategy.
